''Aliaksandr Ryhoravich, What You Said Is Bullshit''

Economists assesses the Belarusian authorities with a ''bad'' mark.

The IMF predicts a slowdown in GDP growth in Belarus. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund in 2019, the gross domestic product of Belarus will grow by only 2.5%. In the summer, the government discussed higher numbers - from 2.8% to 4.1%, writes udf.by.

Do economists trust the IMF forecast and how do you evaluate it in terms of raising the standard of living of the Belarusians?

"The government looks at everything like a mouse from under a broom"

Head of the analytical center “Strategy” Leanid Zaika believes that the IMF forecast for Belarus should be considered disappointing.

“The world dynamics is projected at 4%. Therefore, the mentioned number will not help us out, it is too small to stop the increasing gap. Belarus needs to at least return to the indicators of the pre-crisis level. After 2014, the Belarusian GDP fell by almost 40% in dollar terms. To return to the previous level, it is necessary for the economy to grow by 10% per year, ”said Leanid Zaika.

There is no point in linking the growth of the GDP with the growth of wealth in Belarus, the economist believes.

“This year, the GDP may grow by 3.5%. And the real salary increased by 10%. That is, the proportions between the GDP and income are violated in Belarus, and this sooner or later will lead to inflation. The decisions which are made are unscientific and populist, ”said Leanid Zaika.

Why isn't the development of the economy facilitated by progressive changes in the legislation, decrees on the development of entrepreneurship, or the development of the IT country?

“Because they do not correspond to the ideology of the Belarusian bureaucratic elites. For them, the provided for changes seem a frightening way, ” explained the head of the analytical center “Strategy ”.

The economist does not believe that the new government will be able to significantly change the situation for the better.

“I can express my regret for those who went there to work. I express an even greater feeling of regret for those who think that something will change. For this we need decisive actions. We need people who can say: "Aliaksandr Ryhoravich, you are wrong, dear." Or: "Aliaksandr Ryhoravich, what you said is bullshit." The government is not so strong guys. They do not hold a blow, and fear their own shadows.

Unfortunately, this is a consequence of 24 years of monocratic government. The government looks at everything like a mouse from under a broom, ”said Leanid Zaika.

“Neither 2%, nor 3%, nor 4% will give anything. Must be at least 8.5% per year "

Economist Leu Marholin trusts the IMF forecast more than government's ones, which are “often wishful thinking”. In his opinion, the projected growth in the GDP next year will not lead to an increase in the well-being of Belarusians. Since the figure of 2.5% "is in the area of statistical error."

Leu Marholin recalled that officials recently promised the GDP growth to $ 100 billion by 2025.

“Anyone who is proficient in mathematics can consider what the growth rate of the GDP should be in such a case. Neither 2%, nor 3%, nor 4% will give anything. It should be at least 8.5% per year, ” the economist said.

In his opinion, progressive changes in legislation do not solve global issues on which the development of the country depends. This, above all, is about investments.

“This is no secret. If we want the economy to develop, we need to grow investments. The investments must grow at a serious pace. And they should be good. Sometimes we refer to investment money from the UAE or Turkey. They invest, but where? They are building another shopping and entertainment center, another hotel. And we need investments that bring technology, markets, which really contribute to economic growth, ”said Leu Marholin in an interview with UDF.BY.

However, such investments require a guarantee of security for the property.

“Of course, if an investor relies on agreements with Lukashenka or local authorities, he may take the risk. But there are very few such risky people. Most want to be sure that, apart from commercial risks, they will not face other risks, ”the economist believes.