It is the reason for shifts in the government.
Having appeared in public after the "stroke", Lukashenka attracted attention of mass media with his weird behavior having given the government the hairdryer treatment on August 14.
What conclusions can be drawn from "the Orsha performance" and subsequent shifts in the government? Coordinator of the European Belarus campaign Zmitser Bandarenka answers questions of Charter97.org.
- Why do you think the dictator overreacted precisely in Orsha? What is behind his hysterics?
- First, it proves that the Belarusian economy will be a simple fizzle despite of an alleged "economic growth".
Second, hysterics, personnel shifts of Lukashenka prove that he just want to play significant in policy and in everyday life.
But it's obvious that the Orsha scandal was planned, because the dictator referred to discussions and personnel decisions made before. It was designed as a public proof of the thesis "I'm still alive".
The third reason, I think, is that every official is under strict control of special services, even greater one than opposition members.
During the meeting in Orsha Lukashenka showed his hatred of "Kabyakau and Co", according to his own words. Apparently, special services found out that members of the government shared joy with Belarusians about Lukashenka's possible illness and his potential resignation.
- Why do you think Rumas took the position of Kabyakau?
- Permuting the summands of a sum does not change the value of the sum. Everyone could become the prime minister. Rumas is just from "old deck". He was a reliable person, during the financial crisis he took the position of Vice Prime Minister (December 2010 - July 2012). The greatest depreciation of the Belarusian ruble was under Rumas in the government.
And only sales of Beltransgas and other objects saved the economy then. It does not matter who is Prime Minister - rumas, shumas, ivanov, sidorov.
Lukashenka just need personnel shifts. Because things go wrong, ministers do not want to repair the roof, the economy does not want to be fixed.
There should have been something done, and that's the decision.
- That is, will the changes in the government influence the situation in the country and foreign policy of the regime?
- They will not. Because it's the retention of power by the Lukashenka clan which pursues its own interests.
Both the previous and current government see that this person is not competent and crazy. What president will deal with leaking roofs in a town?
There are greater problems in districts and regions. But now everyone knows that the national welfare is not the matter of countries and governments, but cities and transnational corporations. There is competitiveness between cities at different levels so that to attract investments (that is, technologies and new jobs) of world brands.
This is what the president and heads of cities should deal with. When Lukashenka mumbles something about "democracy", he forgets that we have no mayors, no heads of regions and districts at all. None of them is elected.
The ruler of the country should think how to attract investments and using mayors make these investments available for towns.
The very Orsha is the border city. It locates in the area of "Smolensk gates". Accordingly, there should be logistics centers. It can also be of great interest for tourists because, for example, it was the Trade route from the Varangians to the Greeks. It's also the small motherland of Karatkevich and the place of the Orsha battle.
Even the battle could have become the brand which attracts investments. Countries involved in that battle could deal with it. After all, the French participate in reconstruction of the Battle of Waterloo, and Germans reconstruct the Battle of Grunwald.
Now it's time for marketing of history. Orsha is the city of many stories to tell, and it can attract lots of investments. The very Trade route from the Varangians to the Greeks could attract Nordic money, and I mean not only tourism.
But the ruler from a collective farm splits and says that the roof is not repaired. It's nonsense. The equipment will be idle at enterprises, because no one cares.
- What conclusions can be made after the fall of the dictatorship in Zimbabwe?
- It was done in other cities as well. The authorities directly state: we want to change personalia, the system will remain.
Public and pseudo-independent media start saying that Rumas is reform figure and so on.
Let's take a look what a reform figure he is: he tried to save Lukashenka's regime when there was a catastrophe, and, meanwhile, opposition leaders were jailed. Nothing new will happen to the government.
Changes are possible only when Lukashenka resigns. And still we observe the imitation of his helpfulness.
But it's just the waste of time. It turns out like Lukashenka said "leaky roofs, condoms and other." This is what he is thinking about.