Economist: It Is Better To Get Rid Of Ruble

Playing with exchange rates is dangerous for Belarus.

Three major currencies – the dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble – have been growing in Belarus for days on end. "And if everything is clear with the dollar: it is becoming more expensive in many countries, then it is not so simple with the Russian ruble," – Alpari financial analyst Vadzim Yasub says in his interview to Euroradio.

According to the expert, at a time when, because of the economic and financial sanctions imposed by the United States, the dollar already costs more than 60 rubles in Russia, and the euro – more than 80 rubles, the growth of the Russian ruble in the Belarusian currency market looks suspicious.

Vadzim Yasub does not rule out that this could be the result of the National Bank’s speculations on the currency market.

"The exchange rates are not regulated by orders for a long time. Today, when the National Bank wants to somehow influence the rate of a particular currency, it must make it all the way to the exchange floor and conduct exchange rate interventions: if it wants a higher exchange rate, it must buy this currency, when the National Bank wants it to be the opposite, it must sell this currency.

However, there is no evidence that the National Bank have been actually doing this in recent days. After all, our "regulator" does not disclose the figures of its operations on the currency exchange," – Vadzim Yasub says.

And he notes: it is not in the best interests of the National Bank to influence the exchange rates artificially.

"It's no secret that there is a powerful lobby in our country that is interested in making the Belarusian ruble as cheap as possible, and above all – with regard to the Russian ruble. What kind of lobby is this? It's all those who export their products to Russia.

Those enterprises, which export their products exclusively to Russia and nowhere else, are the most interested ones. This is the majority of our producers or processors. Their logic is simple, and one can understand it: the cheaper the Belarusian ruble is in relation to the Russian one, the easier it is for them to sell their products on the Russian market: their sales and revenue are growing. At the same time, they forget that when we raise the Russian ruble against the Belarusian one, it means that the dollar grows as well," – the Alpari analyst explains.

And taking into account the fact that the majority of Belarus’ foreign loans are in dollars, the loans of the enterprise were also taken in dollars, this game with exchange rates is of great danger for the country.

You can learn about why the directors of Belarusian enterprises care so little about how to give out dollar loans and what those, who have Russian rubles in their stash, do, by listening to the full conversation with Alpari financial analyst Vadzim Yasub here: