Economist: Sharp Devaluation of Belarusian Ruble Is Real In 2020

There are several reasons for this.

Salaries of state employees from 2020 will be calculated according to the new scheme.

One of the main changes is as follows: the first class wage rate, according to which they are now calculating earnings of the employees of budgetary organizations, will be replaced with the base rate.

The authorities say that with the introduction of a new wage system, allegedly there will be no reduction in wages. But they immediately made a reservation: salary drops “should not happen without taking into consideration financial bonuses.”

What will actually happen to the salaries of Belarusian doctors and teachers after the New Year? Economist Leu Marholin answers the questions by Charter97.org.

- Public sector employees, who now receive a significant part of their salaries with bonuses, fear that they may lose money from the New Year. How justified are their concerns?

- To some extent, they are, of course, justified. The fact is that since the end of the 90s, the wage system of state employees has had a rather strange character.

If, logically, a salary or a wage rate should be the biggest part of actual earnings, for many categories, including teachers and doctors, the salary is very small, and the average wage is paid on aggregate: bonuses, allowances, various surcharges, and so on.

But the whole charm of these things is that they, in fact, are not obligatory. And therefore, now we are talking about raising the base rate and making salaries, wages, and tariff rates a more visible part of total earnings. That is, so that employees do not seek any additional payments and bonuses.

Sometimes this happens, let's say, in a completely unlawful way - through personal relationships with management. Conversely, management can thus punish objectionable workers.

Today I can’t say that there will be some sharp drop in the nominal accrued salaries, because the amount of financing in the budget has not been reduced. After all, state employees are people who receive salaries from the state budget. And if the estimated funds that are allocated in the budget for the salaries of state employees do not decrease sharply, then there is no reason to believe that their average salary will sharply decrease.

But in each case, options are possible. That is, if previously somewhere it turned out in some way, due to a manager’s business talent, or acquaintances in higher bodies, to knock out financing for themselves and to increase salaries through allowances and bonuses, then it is possible that in this collective the earnings will fall since next year.

- The Ministry of Labor explained that when comparing salaries for December and January, they will not take into account many of the components of the salary of 2019: night shifts, combination of posts, replacement of a temporarily absent employee, for overtime work, for going on weekends and holidays. And these surcharges make a significant part of the income of the same teachers and doctors ... It turns out that they still lose in wages?

- I think that these fears are exaggerated, because these factors are not taken into account precisely because they will not go anywhere. That is, neither combining, nor overtime, nor payment on a weekend will go anywhere. It all remains.

But for example, if we take teachers, then with a salary of 350 rubles, additional payments start which are permanent and which, apparently, can now be removed. For example, extra charge for class management, for checking notebooks, for extra-curricular activities, for conducting electives, for seniority, and for the length of service.

The point is how to cancel them so that the average teacher's salary does not noticeably decrease. I think that the Ministry of Education is no less concerned about this issue than the teachers and doctors themselves, because we now have the terrible problem of the shortage of health workers who are massively leaving abroad. And if we allow a decrease in wages, then this phenomenon may become widespread in general.

Another thing - and that's what everyone needs to seriously think about - that salaries are in rubles. And if the Belarusian ruble suddenly collapses, then all these efforts to preserve the salaries of state employees can go down the drain. And this seems quite real, especially in the second half of the year.

- By the way, experts say that by the end of this year in Belarus, banks have accumulated about 3.5 billion rubles of “unclaimed by the economy” money that is nowhere to be invested. Is it possible to say that the country has formed the conditions for the devaluation of the ruble in 2020?

- I think that the reason to expect the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble in 2020 is quite serious.

To begin with, the budget contains the average annual ruble exchange rate, which is significantly higher than it is now: 2.24 against the dollar. But if the average annual rate is laid at 2.24 rubles, and at the same time it is 2.1 at the beginning of the year, then it can be expected that by the end of the year it can be 2.54 and 2.6, depending on when the ruble rate starts to fall. This is the first.

The second point is, over the past few years, wage growth has far outpaced the growth of the labor productivity. And this also creates such an inflationary canopy, which can be expressed in devaluation.

Thirdly, the burden on the budget is growing in terms of servicing foreign and domestic foreign currency loans, which will require up to $ 4 billion to service in 2020. Unfortunately, the statistics in this regard remains half-closed, so it’s difficult to say for sure whether these tasks are really provided with sources of financing.

Of course, before the presidential election, if it takes place on August 30, as Yarmoshyna suggests, the authorities will try to maintain the situation. But to But I don’t think they will manage to restrain it all year long. Moreover, it may happen that if it becomes clear that the situation is a complete loss, then the presidential election can be moved to an earlier date. Say, not on August 30, but on May 30, thereby reducing the period during which it is necessary, as they say, “to stand day and night to hold on.”

Therefore, in the second half of 2020, I do not see rosy perspectives for the authorities. And in this regard, it may turn out that in the first half of the year the state employees will be kept wages in order to approach the presidential election in a more rosy mood, and after the election the Belarusian ruble will collapse - and salaries will roll back after it.

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