Andrius Kubilius: Three Factors Will Influence the Development of Events in Belarus

Certain steps are needed for the victory of the Belarusian revolution.

What development of events to expect in Belarus was discussed by several experts on Monday, October 19, during a web event organized by the Belgian think tank Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies, Voice of America reports.

According to Andrius Kubilius, MEP and former Prime Minister of Lithuania, three main factors will influence the development of events in Belarus: the strength of the protest movement in the future, support for the country's democratic development from the EU and the US, and Moscow's position.

Although Western countries continue to support the people of Belarus, they have limited influence on Aliaksandr Lukashenka himself, the Lithuanian MEP noted during the discussion. Therefore, the key question remains on how long Moscow will continue to support Lukashenka. Western countries should strengthen the dialogue with Moscow in order to convince the latter of the disadvantage of continuing to support Lukashenka, said Andrius Kubilius.

"From a geopolitical point of view, this is a trap for Putin because he cannot support popular revolutions. But if he remains on the side of Lukashenka for a long time, he can become toxic in the eyes of Belarusians, just as Lukashenka is toxic," he said.

"I would like to see much more EU attempts - from the EU leadership - to exert diplomatic pressure, political pressure on the Kremlin, on Putin, because his support is the reason that Lukashenka is still in power," adds Andrius Kubilius.

In addition to political support for democratic development in the country and the imposition of sanctions against a number of officials of the regime, the European Union is discussing the possibility of developing a Marshall Plan for Belarus, which may be needed in the event of a transfer of power in the country, the MEP notes. The focus of this plan is to support economic development.

The European Union is also looking at how the international community can help the Belarusian society investigate human rights violations and bring to justice those who committed violence against peaceful protesters. "It is quite obvious that the judicial system of Belarus is not capable of providing justice. That is why the international community must intervene," the MEP stressed.