The usurper staggered and too toxic.
The director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin paid a visit to Minsk, the special services of the two countries held a joint collegium. According to experts, Moscow has assessed the situation and intend to push Aliaksandr Lukashenka to resign, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Sergey Naryshkin's visit to Minsk came as a surprise to experts and observers. Neither the visit itself nor the joint board of the SVR of Russia and the KGB of Belarus was announced. This gave local observers reason to believe that the trip to Minsk was connected with another intrigue of the Belarusian crisis. Let us remind you that the leader of the protesters, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, announced an ultimatum to Lukashenka, demanding his resignation, an end to repression, and the release of political prisoners.
On Wednesday, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting with officials, the content of which was not disclosed to the general public at all. The situation in the country has escalated, and, as usual in such a situation, Aliaksandr Lukashenka turns to Moscow for help.
Although in Moscow, the connection between the events in Belarus and the visit of Sergei Naryshkin was denied. "You see that, in this case, we are talking about cooperation of foreign intelligence, and within the framework of the "union state" there are mechanisms of interaction in all areas, including cooperation in the work of special services. The interaction is so extensive, and this is in no way connected with the events in Belarus," said the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov.
The importance of such a visit to Minsk at such a moment was emphasized by Lukashenka himself at the meeting with Sergei Naryshkin. "It's no secret that our meeting will cause some kind of explosion in the media at the moment, especially on the Internet. Yes, we do not hide the fact that the situation around us is not easy, I mean - around the "union state" - he said.
"Thank you for the opportunity to meet with you and negotiate a wide range of allied relations between our countries. First of all, I would like to convey greetings from Vladimir Vladimirovich; I talked with him before our meeting with you," Sergei Naryshkin began the meeting. "I agree with the assessment of the degree of tension in the situation that exists in the whole world, including our countries."
"We see a desire to try to change the existing structure and political power by unconstitutional methods. The reform of the Constitution, which has already begun, will answer many questions," Sergei Naryshkin said in an interview with journalists after a meeting with Lukashenka. According to him, he had a detailed conversation with Lukashenka concerning allied relations and concentration of efforts on security issues.
The visit really attracted a lot of attention from the expert community and observers. How exactly Russia will help Lukashenka get out of the situation of the People's Ultimatum, we will see in the coming days. However, experts are much more interested in how Aliaksandr Lukashenka will get out of the trap he finds himself in.
"Belarusian-Russian relations have always been very complicated, they have always had a double bottom, all these tales about an idyllic brotherhood were intended only for a very naive audience, but now they are especially contradictory," political observer Alexander Klaskovsky told NG. "On the one hand, the solidarity of authoritarian rulers is at work, and Putin does not want the mass movement, which he and Lukashenka call a color revolution, to win in Belarus. On the other hand, since Lukashenka staggered and is too toxic and the conclusion of agreements on deep integration with him is fraught with the fact that later they may be declared legally null and void, the Kremlin begins to push Lukashenka to the constitutional reform, create or strengthen its infrastructure in Belarus, and look for some probable successor," the expert said.
In the opinion of NG's interlocutor, Lukashenka has his own view of this problem, but he "feels Moscow's position with his own skin," therefore "he is tense, and the level of mutual distrust has become higher than before." "I predict that there may be serious frictions between Lukashenka and the Kremlin since their interests do not coincide in everything now," Aleksandr Klaskouski believes. In this regard, the main goal of Sergei Naryshkin's visit, in his opinion, is to remind the Belarusian partner of the promises he made to the Kremlin in exchange for support in the situation of the deepest political crisis in Belarus.
"For me, Naryshkin's phrase that Putin conveyed ardent greetings to Lukashenka looks very significant. I think this phrase is meaningful," the expert believes. Naryshkin's reminder that he met with Putin before flying to Minsk does not seem to the expert just a form of politeness either. Alyaksandr Klaskouski is convinced that "the Kremlin will use the fact that Lukashenka is in a weak position and will try to put the squeeze on him on a number of issues."