The Tension in Belarus Reaching Critical Level

The dictatorship suffers the most powerful blows.

Peter Kuznetsov, founder of Strong News and Mogilev.Online, wrote on his Telegram channel about the key and most terrible mistake of the Belarusian authorities.

- Now, when many people wear sackcloth and ashes and keep repeating that "the protest has deflated", only few remember that experts (including the author of these lines) forecasted the winter decline of activity in early autumn, as well as the aggravation of the crisis and corrosion of the current system under the influence of absolutely different factors. When forecasts turn into a current event, it means that they follow some logic.

Just a few days ago, Belarusians were actively discussing and rejoicing over the cancellation of the Ice Hockey World Championship. It was another evidence of the legitimacy loss by the authorities and another sign of the increased toxicity of the regime with grave long-term consequences. However, so many events damaging the regime have happened lately that the World Championship is hardly discussable at the moment.

"Belaruskali announces its readiness to reinstate "political workers". Not the spate of humanity stands behind it but the time to sign a 5-year contract with the Yara Company. The Norwegians are the world's largest manufacturers of fertilizers, including those made of potassium raw materials. The Belarusian side is the supplier.

These businessmen are seriously concerned about the human rights situation at the Belarusian company, safety and working conditions, and other "trifles". They arrived in Minsk, annoyed, issued statements.

What if no contract is signed? A very substantial source of hard currency will dry up. The source is so vital that the authorities burst into promising.

It's a huge problem for the regime. The authorities think that business cares only about money, not politics. The other day, it was a private business that cancelled the Ice Hockey World Championship. If Yara withdraws from the contract, it will be difficult to blame it for "selling out". No one wants it to happen, and such a decision would cause tension in the market, which could hurt everyone.

On the other hand, the toxicity of Belarusian authorities is so high that even pragmatic businessmen have to act in this dimension - on the verge of their economic sanctions.

If the company decides not to extend the contract, it may open a Pandora's Box. It will become a signal to business structures, states and international organizations, proving both the toxicity and the impending insolvency of the country.

However, that's not the only problem for the authorities either. They may not have realized it yet. Nevertheless, Igor Losik's hunger strike and the act of self-immolation on Independence Square are also serious blows to their positions.

The more cases like this appear the more victims and obvious examples of desperate resistance to brutal lawlessness exist, and the fewer chances remain for the authorities to return to international politics soon and trade-in political prisoners.

We are witnessing how, despite the "deflated" protests, the temperature of confrontation between society and the authorities is reaching a critical level. The day when others break relations with the country that faced three self-immolations within six months and have people dying in prison from hunger strikes, may indeed come at any moment.

The protests, whether they have been active or "deflated," are just a sign and only one form of the political crisis. The crisis is more profound and complex. If it is not solved, it can simply decompose the system.

The authorities are fighting the protests and pursuing a path of endless confrontation. Since the evening of August 9, it is their main and most tragic mistake.