1 February 2023, Wednesday, 22:36
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‘Black Swans For Lukonomy May Come Flying Again’

‘Black Swans For Lukonomy May Come Flying Again’

Belarusian gold reserves froze in place in anticipation of an uncertain future.

After a sharp rise in August, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Belarus dropped slightly in September, Belsat reports.

What happened?

International reserve assets as of October 1, according to the National Bank, amounted to $ 8,459.9 billion. In September, they decreased by $ 36.8 million (0.4%) after growing in August by $ 1,054.3 million (14.2%).

The decrease in the level of assets in September in the National Bank was explained by the planned repayment of debts in foreign currency by the government in the amount of about $ 240 million, as well as a decrease in the cost of monetary gold. At the same time, the maintenance of the level of gold and foreign exchange reserves was facilitated by the receipt of foreign currency into the budget, as well as the purchase by the National Bank of currency at the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange.

According to the Main Directions of Monetary Policy for 2021, the volume of international reserve assets as of January 1, 2022 should be at least $ 6 billion.

Is the National Bank hiding in an ambush?

Thus, according to the National Bank, in September the situation with gold and foreign exchange reserves in Belarus remained almost unchanged. But, note the authors of the project “Our Money”, the absence of changes “can also be eloquent.”

They noted that in September the Special Loan Rights (SDRs) received from the IMF remained almost unchanged, since “you cannot pay salaries with SDRs at the plant, you don’t even pay off debts”.

“It [almost $ 1 billion from the IMF - edit. Belsat.eu] was not sold anywhere, the debts were not paid off, the salaries were not paid. It turned out that a really beautiful figure is just a figure so far. It lies in the account, but it is not clear that they were in a hurry to use it somehow,” the project's message says.

Changes relative to monetary gold “are rather similar to fluctuations in world gold prices.” Almost the same amount of currencies remained, despite the payments of $ 240 million.

“This means that there were also foreign exchange earnings in the gold and foreign exchange reserves. And this money came, most likely in the form of currency, which the population leases. It turns out to be a winning situation - the dollar exchange rate is stably low, the population, whose incomes are falling, is forced to carry their savings to exchange offices, this currency falls into the state reserves and subsequently goes to pay debts. At the same time, this situation allows the National Bank to acquire currency at a low price. Elegantly, in a doublet, two birds with one stone were killed at once,” the authors of the project say.

In their opinion, the victims here are the Belarusians, who are forced to sell their nest egg. The National Bank, which “buys up cheap currency, cannot get close to the SDR and holds gold,” “is hiding and is very cautiously waiting for the development of events”.