“The National Bank Seems to Open the Last Envelope of Prokopovich”

The economic front provides cheerful news.

Nick and Mike Telegram channel published a review of the main economic news in Belarus:

1. The scale of layoffs at Belarusian enterprises and institutions is impressive. The country misses money.

2. The Council of Ministers imposed a ban on the export of wheat, rye, barley, oats, corn, buckwheat and other cereals. We are waiting for a classic from the founder of the genre of political stand-up: "You've got the eggs, you've lost the milk."

3. MART controls the prices of 55% of goods hoping to stop inflation. Surprisingly, inflation is unwilling to stop. It really shouldn't. It's just that someone did it bad at university and missed principal classes.

4. For the first time in months the volume of trading exceeded 100 million dollars. Before that, it had not exceeded 20 mln. dollars. The National Bank may pretend everything is fine, but no one has ever fooled the economy. Kallaur has confessed today that they are trying to fool it.

The head of the National Bank told about his investment strategy and his savings in Belarusian rubles. It's a bold statement, so let's analyze it separately. There are two aspects.

The first one. The regime starts chopping wood with golden axes. Even the head of the National Bank has been thrown into the propaganda furnace. His neighbourhood with lady Rechitsa, who in her recent analysis accused Belarusian independent research centres of a desire "to bring the society into a depression and thus minimize the chances of economic development under the rule of the acting authorities" looks comical. However, image is nothing; thirst is everything. It seems the National Bank has opened Prokopovich's last envelope.

The second. Kallaur confessed to insider trading. Of course, the Head of the National Bank should know about all the expected movements of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar and the euro, as well as planned devaluations.

It is even surprising that the profitability of Kallaur's savings is only 70% higher than that of foreign currency deposits. After all, the head of the National Bank makes all (okay, almost all) decisions about the country's monetary policy.

He can play along. He moderates the rate when necessary (as long as the money is on the ruble deposit). When the term of the deposit expires, he withdraws rubles, goes to the exchange office in the building of the National Bank, converts them into dollars or euros, returns to his office and weakens the rate.

In the same evening, he goes back to the exchange office, converts money back and put money on deposit in rubles again. Of course, Kallaur is hardly worried about the sudden devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. He will warn himself if anything.

By the way, it's about insider activity. For reference: an insider is a person with access to restricted information (for example, official or commercial secret). In developed countries, such activities can result in imprisonment, not to mention public scandal and loss of position.

We do not recommend repeating Kallaur's trick at home. It is dangerous for you and your money. Formally, the yield is higher, but in terms of currency, it is negative. It's entertaining mathematics.

When does the 13-month of irrevocable deposit of Kallaur expire? Has the time already come?