Economist on Sanctions Against the Regime: Western Countries Aim to Hit the Painful Spot

Lukashenka will have problems.

Western sanctions can cause a serious blow to the Belarusian economy, believes the Russian public figure, former Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia, Sergei Aleksashenko.

- Unlike the sanctions, imposed on Russia over the past five years, the sanctions, which are currently discussed on Belarus, the actual restrictions on exports to the European Union and Western countries of the main budget contributors, are certainly a serious blow," said Alexander Aleksashenko on air of the channel in time Ukraine. - Russia has never faced anything like this before, and no Russian company knows how to live with such restrictions. I think Lukashenka will have problems.

The economist specifies that the strength and duration of sanctions will depend on the position of Russia, as well as the policy of the West.

- The severity and duration of sanctions will depend, first of all, on whether Vladimir Putin is willing to help his neighbour. We are well aware that the scale of the Russian and Belarusian economies are incomparable, so if desired, Russia will be able to solve all the problems of Belarus related to the sanctions.

The second component relates to the countries that impose sanctions and their position. Sanctions are a tool of diplomacy. Their power lies not only in the fact that they are announced once. Sanctions can change as the situation changes. Sanctions can be eased or strengthened.

If Russian companies help Belarusian companies to circumvent the sanctions imposed on them, then sanctions can also be imposed on those who save. If Rosneft will buy Belarusian gasoline and sell it to Europe, the so-called secondary sanctions can be spread against it. This position is strongly depend on the consistency of the Western countries' policy," said Aleksashenko.

At the moment, the expert sees no reason to prevent the West to impose tough sanctions against Belarus similar to those imposed on Iran.

- Belarus is a very convenient country for tough sanctions. I believe the Western countries aim at hitting the most painful spot, that is, oil and potash fertilizers.

After all, sanctions were imposed on Iran: a ban on the purchase of Iranian oil, a ban on deliveries of all sorts of technological equipment to Iran, the freezing of euro and dollar accounts of the central bank and all Iranian banks. In principle, I see nothing that can stop the Western countries from imposing tough sanctions on Belarus as well," concluded the expert.