Economist: There Will Be a Currency Deficit in Belarus, and the Dollar Rate Will Rise

The consequences that all Belarusians may face shortly are named.

Academic director of the BEROC Center for Economic Research Kateryna Bornukova in an express commentary to Salidarnasts explained what will happen to the foreign exchange market in Belarus after the events with the forced landing in Minsk.

- It came as a surprise that the foreign exchange market did not react at all to the incidents and statements that followed after the plane landed in Minsk.

It is obvious that, after this event, the risks that there will be sufficiently serious sanctions, the likelihood of serious shocks have increased. And they could affect the foreign exchange market, but they did not. Most likely, these are the consequences of the National Bank's policy, which squeezes ruble liquidity from commercial banks. That is, they literally have no extra money to show some kind of speculative demand in the foreign exchange market.

And firms that can hedge risks, spend extra rubles to buy currency in anticipation of devaluation, do not do this because they do not have these extra rubles. Of course, this situation is not normal. This means that the market, in general, does not function as a market, the expert concludes.

Taking into account the growing demand of the population for foreign currency, as well as possible sanctions, the interlocutor of Salidarnasts made a forecast regarding the events in the foreign exchange market, which all Belarusians may face in the coming months.

- If we look at the population, it remains pure buyers; in recent months, people are buying more currencies than selling. And, in June, this process intensified even more.

If the sanctions really affect the oil industry (and this is an important source of foreign exchange earnings), this will negatively affect the foreign exchange market.

We already know about some of the problems in the oil industry, a decrease in supplies and a plant shutdown for repairs. The consequences of this on the market are still unnoticeable. This is most likely due to the peculiarity of calculations in the oil industry - they may come with a delay. But, sooner or later, we will still face the consequences.

If the sanctions that were discussed are introduced, they will somehow lead to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings. If foreign exchange earnings decrease, if exports are cut, and we are unlikely to be able to quickly reorient everything to the Russian market, this will undoubtedly affect the correction of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate. There will be a shortage of currency in the market, and, accordingly, the dollar rate will grow.