Currency Spigot for the Regime Shuts Off

It's time to repay what is borrowed.

Experts of the Nashy Groszy project have compared the amount of money Belarus receives from Russia to previous years.

For example, Belarus borrowed $1.57 billion from Russia in 2015; $2.11 billion in 2017 and $1.08 billion in 2018. In 2019 alone, Belarus borrowed more ($979 million) from Russia and the EFSD than it took ($730 million) in loans from them.

"But things quickly went back to normal. In 2020 and 2021, we are again steadily borrowing more from Russia and the EFSD than we are repaying," the experts say.

However, experts say, "very soon this gamble for loans will hit us". Thus, if the total loan repayments from Russia and the EFSD amounted to $653 million in 2015, it will amount to $1.086 billion in 2021.

Given the promised $640 million in 2021, Minsk will receive about $1.404 billion from the Kremlin. At that, Belarus has already compensated Russia and its Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development $689 million this year. That is, about half of the money borrowed from Russia this year has covered old debts.

"Russia is gradually shutting off the currency spigot. It's time to repay what is borrowed. If one compares credit relations of the recent years with the current situation, it's safe to say that the Kremlin is not being greedy but it certainly is not being generous," say the experts.

According to them, "credit appetites of Belarus are steadily high, but the opportunities to get loans are narrowing". The country borrows more than it gives.

"Russia remains the major creditor, and Belarus becomes increasingly dependent on it. Meanwhile, Moscow is allocating money more and more cautiously," say the economists.

According to them, "given that more and more stringent international sanctions loom on the horizon, this situation may entail serious problems".