AFU Counterattack Near Kharkiv Broke Kremlin's Plans

Russian troops are retreating from the region.

The Ukrainian defence forces are successfully counterattacking the occupiers near Kharkiv and forcing them to withdraw their forces from the region. In addition, the enemy is forced to fight off counterattacks by Ukrainian troops, having given up bombing the city.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts point out that the counterattack near Kharkiv is beginning to resemble the successful expulsion of the occupiers from the suburbs of Kyiv and the northern regions of the country. The attacks by the AFU broke the plans of the invaders, who withdrew their forces towards Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. However, experts are not sure that the occupiers will not try to return the lost positions in the near future.

ISW experts believe that the Russian Federation may abandon its plan to encircle the Ukrainian troops at the Izyum-Slaviansk-Debaltsevo line. Instead, the occupiers may choose a smaller encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

"As of 12 May, Russian troops are likely to control almost all of Rubizhne and have probably seized the town of Voivodovka to the north of Severodonetsk. They are likely to launch a ground offensive near Severodonetsk in the next few days. The relative success of Russian operations in this area, combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and a noticeable slowdown of this offensive attempt, suggest that they may give up the Izyum direction," the experts forecast.

The ISW does not predict whether Putin's army will be able to encircle and capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, even if it focuses on this much smaller target. The enemy's offensive attempts were suppressed in the initial phase. Therefore, experts are sceptical about the Russian Federation's potential success.

AFU counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region

On May 5, the Ukrainian Defence Forces launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Izyum directions.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of 18:00 on May 10, a number of settlements in Kharkiv Region had been liberated from the Russian occupants. The occupants were knocked out of the settlements of Cherkasskiye Tishki, Russkiye Tishki, Rubizhne and Bayrak.

It is also reported that due to significant losses on the territory of Kharkiv Region, the occupant units are being withdrawn to recover in Russia. Additionally, a large part of the military service personnel under the remaining contract have written their letters of resignation.

ISW reported that the AFU counter-offensive has further expanded to the north-east of Kharkiv, and is likely to advance to the border with Russia in the coming days or weeks.

However, the Russian occupiers have decided to hold their positions on the outskirts of Kharkiv at all costs. To this end, additional battalion-tactical groups are being brought to Belgorod Region.

The Institute for the Study of War recently announced that the Ukrainian Defence Forces continued a counter-offensive to the north of Kharkiv and pushed the occupiers back towards the Russian border. The soldiers managed to liberate several settlements. They are driving the occupiers towards the Russian border.

ISW reported yesterday that the occupiers had gone over to the defense in Kharkiv Region.