First Explosions In Crimea: How They Change Course Of War

The future has many surprises in store for the Kremlin.

The explosions that took place at the military airfield in Novofedorivka, Saki district in the occupied Crimea, first of all showed that the objects that Russia used against Ukraine (for example, airfields) are not guaranteed to be protected by Russian air defense, and can be hit by the latest Ukrainian weapons with the appropriate range. That is, Ukraine can hit objects from which either missile launches occur, or enemy aircraft begin their combat flights.

Russia received a very clear signal about this in the Crimea.

Even if the explosions at the military facility in Novofedorivka were not caused by a missile strike from our side (this was not confirmed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine), but it was a competently carried out special operation to blow up the facility and military equipment, this indicates the beginning of an active phase of the struggle even behind enemy lines.

After the explosions that were heard at ammunition depots in Russia and the occupied territories, at some training grounds, the events in Novofedorivka are especially significant.

This situation showed how vulnerable the Russian military machine really is, and there are threats to it in any territory. Therefore, regardless of the method by which these explosions were caused, it is the depreciation of a specific military facility by destroying military assets, as well as our warning to Russia. We made it clear that we would no longer forgive strikes on our territories and would strike back at those facilities from which they strike at us: launch facilities on the territory of Russia, launch facilities on the occupied territory, launch facilities on the territory of Belarus, if there are launches from there, for example, of Iskanders, or aviation flights. Now they know that all complexes and airfields that will be used against our state will receive powerful blows in response.

These first explosions in the Crimea signify a different strategic format of military confrontation in the future. This changes the paradigm not only of the defense of Ukraine, but also of possible strategic actions, especially in the east of the country, where we can launch an offensive operation, destroying enemy infrastructure, for example, bridges, communication lines, ammunition depots, headquarters. It is under such circumstances that a turning point in the war can begin.

Therefore, the explosions in Novofedorivka can become a kind of symbol of a turning point. We are already ready for this both mobilizationally and professionally, plus the latest equipment and weapons are actively coming in — all this creates the prerequisites for successful offensive operations of the Ukrainian troops.

That is, we are moving to a new qualitative stage of the war, having the latest models of equipment and weapons. We are talking not only about HIMARS, but also about other missile weapons from Britain, Germany and our military-industrial complex, which hit more than 220 km. Now we can not only defend ourselves, but also preemptively strike at enemy strategic targets.

In addition, this event is of great moral and psychological significance.

First, our allies see that we are moving into an active phase and are making some progress. As a result, our partners will more actively support Ukraine.

The concrete result that we have shown is a prerequisite and incentive for the supply of weapons and equipment not sometime in September or October, or at the end of the year, but already in the coming weeks.

This will create large-scale capabilities to counter the enemy, and strike at such targets in other regions.

Secondly, it raises the spirit of the Ukrainians themselves, and most importantly, the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who have been waiting for such operations for a long time. The army that will advance will be encouraged by the understanding that the big threats that could be used against them in the course of hostilities will be neutralized. Of course, this will stimulate the active and effective actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the offensive.

We can hope that the explosions in Novofedorivka will be the beginning of a series of similar explosions at airfields, depots, training grounds, ballistic missile launch sites, and will also contribute to the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this will create the prerequisites for our victory in the near future.

If these events in Novofedorivka turn out to be an episodic phenomenon, this will be tangible for Russia, but will not be decisive for victory.

This episode is a demonstration that long-range missiles are gradually appearing in our country. And not only foreign, but also ours. Although the latter are not in large numbers, there are units of such weapons, and they are comparable to HIMARS and other launch systems. We are talking about our Neptunes, Alder, and others that hit at a distance of more than 220 km.

Of course, Russia will not leave the first explosions in the Crimea unanswered, it will react.

First, the Russian Federation will withdraw its strategic facilities to a greater distance from the line of contact with Ukraine. Not only the navy — it has already done this for the most part — but also ammunition depots, airfields, and the like.

Secondly, Russia will try to take revenge on Ukraine — it will try to strike not only at the military, but also at civilian targets. In addition, our military facilities are mostly hidden and very secure, but civilian facilities in large cities can become a target. For example, in Kyiv or Odesa, or Kharkiv, or Mykolaiv. This will be a revenge. The Russians have always acted this way when Ukraine hit something significant, for example, the cruiser Moskva or large trains.

Therefore, in the near future it is worth being aware of missile strikes, and not neglecting air raid signals so that there are no casualties among the Ukrainian population, because the danger in this sense will be very great.

However, looking ahead, it is worth noting that the Crimean Bridge is unlikely to become the next target in the Crimea. So far, our forces are not ready for such a powerful blow. After all, the Crimean bridge, firstly, is very well protected by the diverse air defense systems of the Russian Federation. Secondly, very strong strikes will be needed, because tactical missiles will not be able to bomb it so easily - very powerful warheads are needed. Thirdly, a simple strike on the bridge may not have a special effect — such an event should be carried out in a complex, in particular, if an offensive operation is carried out, for example, from Kherson to the Crimean peninsula, at this moment strikes by various means on the Crimean bridge are possible. This will destroy the communication of the Crimea with the territory of the Russian Federation, and stop the movement of military equipment to the peninsula. In addition, this will lead to panic, because the Russians will be surrounded from our side from the Kherson region, and the bridge will also be blocked — such panic will prompt either surrender or flight, just to be saved. In this case, a strike on the Crimean bridge will have a very powerful strategic effect, both military and psychological.

Russia hoped that we would not dare to strike at the territories it considers its own, such as the Crimea. It does not know very well about our capabilities in terms of precision and long-range weapons (rocket and artillery). Therefore, in this situation, it was unexpected for the Russians.

Moreover, Russia does not have sufficient operational information. Therefore, it often hits civilian infrastructure, where military factories used to be. This indicates that even reconnaissance is not carried out in the Russian Federation, and objects are determined by old maps.

Therefore, the explosions at the military airfield in Novofedorivka were unexpected for Russia, and I think that the future has many surprises in store for the Russian Federation. After all, we maneuver well, hide information, and misinform the enemy.

Mykola Malomuzh, Glavred