Military Expert On General Popov's Rebellion: It's 1917 Again In Russia

Prigozhin's mutiny has affected the Russian military top brass.

The Russian Defence Ministry has suspended Major General Ivan Popov, nicknamed "Spartak", commander of the 58th All-Russian Army of the Southern Military District. The latter responded by accusing the head of the Defence Ministry, Sergey Shoigu, of betrayal.

How to assess such events in the Russian Federation? Charter97.org talked to military expert, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies Aliaksandr Musienka.

- This is a quite predictable event for me after Prigozhin's revolt, as it was clear that it would affect the Russian military top leadership for two reasons. The first reason is that there are officers who share his view that the Russian Ministry of Defence is not meeting the needs and the war is not going the way it should. They believe that not enough ammunition, shells are being supplied, there are no victories, they are in defence and so on.

On the other hand, the mopping up of the ranks that Shoigu is doing now is going on, because he has kept the ground and now he's going to try to strengthen it. This leads to such conflict situations, mopping up of generals. I think this is just the beginning, there will be more.

- Do you see this as a consequence of Prigozhin's rebellion?

- Yes, these are consequences. And it's an open question whether they will lead to new revolts, whether these generals and officers will unite and create, let's say, opposition to the Kremlin, Putin and Shoigu, whether they will repeat what Prigozhin tried to do, only in a different way. Or they will simply be all repressed by the Ministry of Defence and the FSB.

- So far, General Surovikin has not appeared in public. Will such purges affect the Russian generals and the Russian army?

- They will have an impact. In fact, everything that is happening, all these mopping ups, the statements that people like Popov are making, are demoralising. What does Popov say? He says that there are not enough shells, no ammunition, they can't carry out counter-battery warfare. This is disappointment, this is the effect of demoralisation. It's bound to happen, it's to be expected. On what scale - the question remains open, but it is a fact that demoralisation will continue.

- How well developed is the shop solidarity between officers in Russia in general?

- The fact is that for years the Russian leadership has systematically done everything to prevent the military from having a voice and to keep them out of power in one way or another. You remember that the only person who could achieve anything in this field was General Lebed, who died under mysterious circumstances.

The lowest and most humiliated caste in the hierarchy of Russian power is the Russian military. Therefore, it is in their interests now to revive this shop solidarity and unite. The more such voices there are, the sooner it can lead to the end of the war, because some action will be taken by the Russian leadership. If not, they will be dismissed one by one, criminal cases will be opened against some of them and they will be dealt with in this way.

- To what extent can Russian officers be a party capable of resistance? If we look at Russian history, it is difficult even to give an example when Russian officers initiated a change of power.

- The Bolshevik coup was a classic use of sailors and the army, and military personnel played a huge role in that. Prigozhin also wanted to repeat that scenario, to follow that path. So here is an example of 1917, of which Putin was talking about. He just sorted out the situation and understood the threats to him. However, this 1917 has not been cancelled, as it seems to me, the events have simply been postponed, they have been put on a certain pause.

This situation is not over, it will gradually grow, and the more problems there are inside the Russian army, the more problems there are inside society, plus economic and social tensions, the more it will accelerate the processes of this 1917 year.

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