Ukrainian Diplomat: Türkiye Can Stalemate Russia In The Black Sea

The question is whether Erdogan wants this.

Russia has withdrawn itself from the “grain deal” and is threatening to attack civilian ships in the Black Sea. For several days in a row, the occupiers have been shelling Ukrainian ports in Odesa and Mykolaiv. What is Russia seeking?

The Charter97.org website talked about this with Oleksandr Khara, Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation:

— It is absolutely clear that Russia is seeking two big things. The first is to destroy Ukraine's ability to generate money to defend itself. Therefore, over the past few days, we have seen an escalation. The second is blackmailing the Western world by increasing hunger in the “global South” so that there are waves of migration, if possible, destabilizing regimes that rely on subsidized goods, including bread.

Therefore, we see the continuation of blackmail, the continuation of the murder of Ukraine and Ukrainians. It is significant that for Russia, vulnerable developing countries are only a tool in achieving its goals.

— Another side of the deal is Türkiye. Can Erdogan bring Putin back into the “grain deal”, does he have the relevant leverage?

— We need to start with the fact that the “grain deal” itself is the creation of a new reality, since there is one reality — legal, because there is the law of the sea, which says that all countries can freely use sea routes, export their goods by sea.

After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia began to impose new rules. The so-called grain deal was a compromise, but it began to be seen as something ordinary: two countries agreed, and there were two companies doing something.

Here we need to constantly say that Russia is reshaping international law, imposing its own rules, and, unfortunately, it succeeds in doing this.

The second point is that there are two deals. They are mirrored and parallel, but not connected. The first is between Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, the second is Türkiye, Russia and the UN. Obviously, Russia is violating the deal that was concluded between Ukraine, Türkiye and the UN.

Naturally, Erdogan will try to bring Putin back into this deal. Lately, he has been echoing Russian narratives that the Russian Federation should be able to export more of its grains and fertilizers. Although no sanctions were imposed on Russian grain and fertilizers. Moreover, the Europeans proposed a formula to get one bank out of sanctions, which is necessary for the Russian Federation to receive money for grain.

Russia refused, because it wants to break the sanctions.

Erdogan promoted this topic and will try to do it again, because for him such deals are an important foreign policy prestige, his role in the Black Sea region is increasing. I'm not talking about the interest in not interrupting the supply of food, including to Türkiye. Türkiye is not in the best economic condition, so it will be important for Erdogan to get Putin back in the deal.

However, I do not think that he has such an opportunity today. Moreover, Putin is also offended by Erdogan. Before the presidential elections in Türkiye, Putin said that the deal would be extended after the elections, which helped Erdogan. And then we saw the unblocking of Sweden's entry into NATO, Erdogan's words about supporting Ukraine's entry into the Alliance. All these things angered Putin.

— Can there be any alternative to the grain deal?

— The alternative is the defeat of the Russian Federation and the restoration of international maritime law in the Black Sea region. There may be other alternative ways to deliver Ukrainian grain by sea. The easiest way is through the territory of NATO countries — Romania, Türkiye. It is clear that Putin will think ten times before attacking peaceful bulk carriers in NATO territorial waters, which can be considered as aggression.

Another option is that Ukraine is promoting mine clearance coalitions in the Black Sea. After all, one thing is a missile attack that can be delivered from Russian platforms, the second is blocking by ships, and the third is minefields. U.S. officials have said that Russia is mining exits from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. Accordingly, this can be solved by a mine-clearing coalition.

A more complicated issue is a convoy under the flag of either the Black Sea countries or NATO countries. However, the problem here is that Turkey closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles not only for Russian warships, but also for non-Black Sea warships. Türkiye could open the strait, but whether Erdogan will do it — I have big doubts here.

There is an option when the bulk carriers will be under the Turkish flag. Then Russia will face a choice, because it may quarrel with an important partner in the Black Sea.

There is a variant of the blockade of Russian ports, it would be logical that Russia could not only use the ports in the Black Sea, but also the ones in the Baltic Sea. After all, they exported more oil in the Black Sea, and reoriented grain to the Baltic ports. However, this requires the political will of Washington, Brussels, and other European capitals.

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