'Poland Has Trump Cards Not Yet Used'

A political analyst explains how Warsaw can stump Lukashenka.

Lukashenka was on a two-day visit to Russia. He met Putin in St Petersburg. During the meeting, the Belarusian dictator supported the Kremlin leader's anti-Polish statements.

Why have the two dictators been actively talking about Poland lately? Charter97.org asked political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets:

- Since Soviet times, they have a certain phobia, a complex against different nationalities: Jews, Poles, Germans and others. This is a kind of deep core that was embedded in Soviet education. Obviously, they found each other against this background. Obviously, Poland is a big irritant for them (especially for Putin) because of Warsaw's support for Ukraine, so they raise this issue.

For Lukashenka, this is not the first time that Poland acts as such an enemy that he has created for himself. It is worth remembering that in August 2020, he accused the Poles of allegedly preparing a revolution in Belarus and said that NATO planes had already taken off from Polish airfields to bomb Belarusian cities. Nothing happened. Now it is done for the internal Russian audience to show that there are some external enemies that Putin and Lukashenka are fighting.

On the other hand, they are trying to draw Poland into the conflict by any means possible. They want to raise the stakes. They are also blackmailing Warsaw: PMC Wagner will try to attack neighbouring countries. Or Lukashenka can blackmail Poland with the use of nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus.

But Poland has trump cards that it has not played yet. One of them is a complete trade embargo and the blocking of all trade routes from the European Union to Belarus. Since Lukashenka is behaving like this with Putin, the only response would be a complete trade embargo. Unfortunately, Poland has not yet done so and continues to trade with Aliaksandr Lukashenka, allowing him to receive funds for his own survival.

- Apart from the embargo, how else can Warsaw respond to such statements and actions?

- Ensure that a criminal case is opened against Lukashenka at the International Criminal Court and, within the framework of national legislation, issue an arrest warrant and submit it to Interpol, declaring wanted a group of people from Lukashenka's inner circle, law enforcers, the dictator himself, his eldest son, younger son and other relatives involved in large-scale repression in Belarus.

That would be a very decisive step. We see individuals flying around a number of countries. An arrest warrant would limit the range of their flights and create additional conditions for their arrest in the future.

- Lukashenka also mentioned the Wagner fighters who will allegedly go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszów. Is this a continuation of the Kremlin's anti-Polish strategy or an initiative of the Belarusian dictator?

- Before Lukashenka made his speech, he was probably instructed by someone from the Kremlin's political bureau. He had not used notes before. Either he has advanced dementia and forgets what he wants to say, or someone dictated this note to him.

- After making solid statements on the first day, both dictators went to monasteries. Why?

- You should know that the monastery they visited on the island of Valaam is a sacred place for Putin. In July 2019, the Russian president took Lukashenka there and bowed before the icons. Putin and Lukashenka discussed an urgent issue for the head of the Kremlin - the need to create and implement the clauses of the agreement on the so-called union state within the framework of the agreements signed in 1999.

Lukashenka swore to Putin that he would do everything.

By December 2019, he should come to sign all the necessary documents, roadmaps and everything else that would allow the formation of some kind of "union state". Putin sees it as the Soviet Union 2.0, but Lukashenka, we remember, sent Putin away.

After that, of course, a lot changed, but eventually the Kremlin master began to twist Lukashenka's arms. I believe that Putin is still obsessed with the need to create such a "micro-USSR" within the parameters he sees. He may have dragged Lukashenka back to Valaam to swear in churches or some refectory that he will do everything.

With the next presidential election due in March, Putin needs to play some kind of integration card. A similar scheme was implemented by Yeltsin in 1996, when the Kremlin used Lukashenka's hands to launch an integration programme. Yeltsin was presented as an integrator.

I would like to note that as long as Putin is alive and remains on the Kremlin throne, he will never give up the scheme of taking over Belarus.

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