Last year of dictatorship

Lukashenka is not supported by the society. He cannot have support. His approval rating hardly reaches 15% today, leader of “European Belarus” Andrei Sannikov writes.

The outgoing year has clearly demonstrated that the regime has neither political nor economic resources to develop Belarus today. It has only self-preservation instinct and an aggressive desire to fight the dissent in the country. But this is not enough to build a strong and flourishing Belarus on.

The regime exists not due to popularity, but due to our indecision. However, there were a few attempts to support the regime this year.

The external world in persons of EU officials made a decisive attempt to influence the situation in Belarus by means of new measures. The recent back-door ideas have become the general line: rebuilding relations with Lukashenka under cover of taking care of people. In real fact, the business of the neighbouring countries pushed their politicians to such a turn long ago, but big European players were waiting for a pretext not to solve, but close the irritating issue on human rights in Belarus. After the war in Georgia the adventurous geopoliticians decided a historic chance to help Lukashenka to discover the world and realize his happiness has come. Down with democratic demagogy, it’s time to do serious business.

A part of the opposition, tired of their unsettled state, enjoyed this turn. Actually, how comfortable it is: use the same slogans, just change some suffixes and everything will be all right. Liberalization, democratization, Europezation, independezation...

The theory seems easy. Even sceptics would like to believe the regime will yield to circumstances, embrace this extremely favourable offer of the EU and make at least a half step forward to the democracy it hates so much. But miracles do not happen.

The result of the “struggle” for tearing away Belarus from Russia was development of the European Union aimed at revival of the USSR. The result of the “struggle” for human rights by ignoring political prisoners and police violence was attacks on journalists, abductions of oppositionists, urgent preparation of the Internet blockade.

Lukashenka failed to sell his regime to West. The loans granted by the IMF, World Bank, and private banks were dictated by fear that collapse in one country, even a dictatorial one, will cause unpredictable consequences in other countries’ economies. It is sad that dictatorship in Belarus is supported, but I am sure it won’t last for long.

The crisis didn’t force Lukashenka to carry out reforms. What reforms are possible if the public doesn’t have an opportunity to discuss? There are no independent participants of such discussions, namely parliament, independent press, independent courts. It is impossible to find an optimal behaviour model amid crisis and after it. There’s not competition of opinions, not ordinary opinions, but those backed with power. Effective measures to tackle the crisis suppose decentralization of decision making, active delegating power, but everything is absolutely different in our country. Inconsiderate loans accumulation in hope to hold on a little more time makes overcoming the recession extremely difficult if possible.

The opposition offered the authorities a dialogue three years ago to overcome the crisis, strengthen independence, move Belarus to a new level. In response, the authoriites had a stranglehold on the dictatorship. A year ago, the European Union made proposals to the authorities passing by the opposition. The regime was afraid even of this. There are no liberals in the government, however strong a desire of Europeans and local supporters of Lukashenka to find them was. There are officials, devoted to the dictatorship, who try to make liberal sounds for greater pleasure of the master.

On the contrary, the opposition understand better what way Belarus should choose: independence, free elections, European Union. Taking this way is possible only by saying good bye to Lukashenka’s dictatorship. This task is easy to be fulfilled.

Generally speaking, Lukashenka even failed to split the opposition. He only broke off a bit, but doesn’t know what to do with it.

The dictator promised a year and a half ago that there would be no opposition in Belarus in a year. This year was really difficult for the democratic forces. It’s difficult to stand if those speaking about their friendship and adherence to principles are eager to trip you up. But we have stood up. We need to do our best in order the last dictatorship of Europe die.

The year 2009 was difficult for Belarus. The reason is not the global crisis, but the political regime. It doesn’t give a hope, lies on any occasion, even if this concerns health of citizens. We have power to make our life better next year. Let’s wish one another the hope of most Belarusians comes true.

Happy New Year! Long live Belarus!