Joerg Forbrig: Sudden changes can start in Belarus

There are reassuring signals in the presidential campaign, the German expert believes.

Joerg Forbrig, an expert of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in the interview to Deutsche Welle has named the differences of the present presidential campaign from the previous ones, and explained why its results won’t influence relations of Minsk and Brussels.

According to Forbrig, the EU plays an indirect role in this election, and it should be ready for changes in Belarus, which are not so far as Brussels might think.

- What is the difference of the present presidential campaign from the previous ones?

- Essentially, first I would like to say that no real election is expected in Belarus. I think that proceeding from the situation as it is shaped now, the election campaign will mostly take place like in 2001 and in 2006. There is quite a number of indicators in support of such a statement.

Since the beginning of the year crackdown on activists of the civil society and journalists has intensified. As before, the full control over the mass media market is exercised by of the authorities, and use of state-run mass media to the advantage of the state is carried out. We witnessed verbal attacks of Lukashenka against other candidates; he many times made references to previous elections, at which Lukashenka allegedly had a landslide victory. In this regard little seems to have changed.

It is obvious that the free election in Belarus is not welcome under the present government. I think that one more testimonial of that is the makeup of election commissions where opposition is hardly visible. So it seems to me that the process is going on as in the past.

However, I would say that there are facts that look reassuringly. Firstly, courage of different candidates who decided to run at all, though that could hardly be expected.

It is especially interesting to observe that people were very active in forming of initial groups of potential candidates. In groups of a number of oppositional candidates the number of members is even more than in Alyaksandr Milinkevich’s in 2006. It is an important signal, which to my mind gives grounds to say that wide strata of the society are interested in the election.

We are receiving analogous signals, observing the process of collection of signatures in support of oppositional candidates. To my mind, it is going on very successfully. So far, as I can judge, they have collected about half a million of signatures, which shows a great inertest of the society to oppositional candidates, their criticism of the current regime and proposals about changing the situation in the country.

- What role does the European Union play in this election in Belarus?

- Firstly, it should be emphasized that Belarus is a European country. In the current election the EU plays an indirect role from different points of view. Firstly, the EU is an important starting point of the programs for a number of candidates, for instance, for Andrei Sannikov, who represents “European Belarus” campaign.

It shows that in the long-term the EU remains an attractive possibility for the future of the country for many people in Belarus. And it is a right orientation, which is shared by many oppositionists.

Similarly, the EU plays an indirect role, without any interference, in the election process proper. As far as I know, observation would be organized by the EU, and estimation would be done to it jointly with the OSCE.

- How important is the issue of election recognition for Lukashenka?

- Not very important probably. Lukashenka has a good experience. In 2008 after the election to the Belarusian parliament the EU made a big step towards Minsk and invited Minsk to the Eastern Partnership. It was done despite of the fact that the election had not been recognized free, without any moves of Belarus towards democratization.

I would like to repeat, at the moment there is a number of factors, for instance, forming the Central Election Commission which influences he result of the election, being a part of the election process, and which do recognition of the election by the EU free and fair very problematic.

- How the result of the election will influence the relations of Belarus and the EU?

- First we should look back and admit that the relations of the EU and Belarus have not been very intensive over the last 15 years. For a long time there were almost no contacts which deserve mentioning. Two years ago by inviting Belarus to the Eastern Partnership an attempt was made to build relations with Minsk with the help of the formula of changing though rapprochement.

I think that sobering has come to Brussels and capitals of the EU member states over the last years about that. It is mostly stated with regret that changes have not come. Belarus is offered cooperation at different levels, in the sphere of technical cooperation, in the sphere of civil society, at the political level.

But no steps are made by Minsk in response in order to carry out political liberalization inside the country. I could not but cause certain disappointment of many in the EU, and a certain sense of powerlessness as for the possible change sin Belarus.

To my mind, it leads to relations between Belarus and the EU to stay at a relatively low level despite of the election. Personally I believe it is a mistake, as I adhere to the position that the relations accompanying the election which I mentioned earlier, have changed to the better.

Besides, to my mind, the influence of such an important factor of Russia has changed. We cannot proceed from Moscow’s recognition of the election results which would be made automatically. They reflect on that not Lukashenka, but a different president of Belarus could be more acceptable from the point of view of Russia’s interests.

In this respect the EU should attentively observe what is going on in Belarus, and react when sudden changes start in the country. They are probably not so far as someone in Brussels or somewhere else thinks.