Experts: Conflict between Kremlin and Belarusian dictator will escalate

The conflict between the Russian and Belarusian leadership enters a new phase, politologists think.

Editor of Russia in Foreign Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov links the conflict between Lukashenka and the Russian leaders with possible change in priorities of the Kremlin’s foreign policy.

The politologist tried to understand for what purpose Russia has chosen escalation. Is the only purpose is, as Lukyanov says, putting Lukashenka in his place, or has Russia decided to change the principal directions in foreign policy by refusing from creating an area of influence in post-Soviet countries in favour of “big integration” (entering the WTO, establishing closer relations with the EU and West in whole, etc.)?

Expert from the Bertelsmann Foundation (Bertelsmann Stiftung) Cornelius Ochmann thinks the abovementioned strategic directions are not mutually exclusive but both equally meet the interests of Russia.

Cornelius Ochmann is confident that the conflict is more connected with economy than to policy. The Kremlin doesn’t want anymore to give financial aid to its neighbours as it was in the 1990s.

Forecasting prospects for normalization of the relations between Russia and Belarus experts exclude that it may happen before the presidential election in Belarus. Belarusian politologist Uladzimir Matskevich thinks the conflict didn’t end but entered a new phase.

According to him, after a “cold peace” the confrontation will find expression in “reviewing the acting agreements and adjusting the institutions created after the USSR collapse”. As the head of the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies thinks, Minsk has some advantages, but in long-term prospects Moscow will try to profit by constructing oil and gas pipelines bypassing Belarus.

Fyodor Lukyanov in turn expects the situation to “come to a logic end”. “It’s unclear how to build relations with Lukashenka after what has been said regarding him,” the editor of Russia in Global Affairs wonders. He supposes returning to previous relations is very difficult.

Expert from the Bertelsmann Cornelius Ochmann adds that the Belarusian ruler has taken the path he cannot go off, so the conflict will escalate.

The German expert proceeds from the assumption that in long-term prospects, Moscow will support political opponents of Lukashenka in Belarus. The question is only “how this will look like and how much time it will take”.