Andrei Sannikov: EU is a bit shy

Presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov told Frankfurter Allgemeine about the atmosphere in Belarus prior to the presidential elections.

- Mr. Sannikov, the Belarusian journalist Oleg Bebenin, a fervent critic of President Lukashenka, died in mysterious circumstances in September. He was an important member of your team. How do you explain is death?

- Oleg was a close friend of mine. He was not only a journalist but also a brilliant organizer. I do not believe that he committed suicide and died of his own will. Maybe he was murdered, maybe he was drugged. It is not the first time that one of us was threatened. He, too, had already once been abducted and intimidated. You have to imagine this like the simulation of a killing: this is to break people. People have more than once been killed or disappeared for political reasons in Belarus.

- In December, Lukashenka wants to ensure his re-election for a fourth term. He manipulated the last elections.

- There are no elections in Belarus. If there really was an election, Lukashenka would have no chance. He just holds on to power, by all means.

- But will anything be different this time around?

- Yes, the situation is different and changes are possible. This is because of Russia: for many years, Russia supported Lukashenka, and whatever he did, Russia turned a blind eye. Most recently, however, Moscow also reports the ugly side of the Lukashenka regime. Russian TV first aired documentaries about how people disappear in Belarus and how leading politicians are implicated in those disappearances. Lately President Medvedev harshly criticized Lukashenka in public.

- Have you been surprised by this?

- Very much so. Of course, Russians have always thought that Lukashenka was a son of a bitch but then, he was their son of a bitch. I can only speculate about the reasons for the change in opinion: Moscow seems to consider Lukashenka an unpredictable partner. He received loans, subsidies, cheap gas and oil. And by the looks of things, energy prices will soon be increased further, even though still not to market levels. It seems that Lukashenka has not met some obligations, and not only that he has not acknowledged the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I welcome the Russian change in policy. It will change Moscow’s relationship with the whole region.

- But is the Russian leadership really interested in a regime change?

- Moscow has not called it like that but it sends clear signals that it does not wish to cooperate with Lukashenka any longer. I cannot imagine how Moscow can go back to before its criticism of Lukashenka.

- This summer, the Kremlin invited representatives of the Belarusian opposition to Moscow. Which kind of contacts do you have in Moscow?

- I studied there in the late 1980’s. It was the time of perestroika, and we could read all the books and articles that were not available at home. Until today I have contacts with several Russian politicians and journalists.

- Alexander Milinkievich, who ran against Lukashenka four years ago, boycotts the upcoming elections.

- No, he does not boycott them. He just does not run again.

- Apparently, he does not want to be part of this show. Why do you run then?

- I really want a change in power. Believe me, the people will take to the streets and protest if Lukashenka tries to steal the election once again. I have supported different opposition candidates in the 2001 und 2006 elections. I am disappointed with Milinkievich.

- Is the atmosphere really different?

- Yes, I sensed this during the signature collection for my candidacy. The people come to us openly and discuss what they do not like in the country and with Lukashenka. They are very concerned and they know that a better life would be possible, even if Lukashenka promises them higher salaries and pretends to guarantee stability, especially in the relationship with Russia. But the exchange offices often run out of foreign currency, so much demand is there now. The young people, especially, look to Europe. An old lady came to me during signature collection who would normally vote for Lukashenka, as old people do not want change. But this woman said that they talked in the family and that her grandchildren were worried. They want similar opportunities as other young people in Europe. This is encouraging.

- Your movement is called „European Belarus“. You are in favor of Belarusian entry to the EU. Is this realistic?

- We have to return the law to Belarus; we have to reinstate the separation of powers. We best do that according to the criteria that are necessary for EU membership. Our neighbors have much experience with that, such as Poland or the Baltic states.

- And what about Moscow?

- I believe that it is possible to take a European orientation and retain Russia as an important partner. This is, in the end, also in Russia’s interest. President Medvedev also wants to modernize his country, and this will not work while building a quasi-Soviet Union. Ukraine could be a model to guide us: President Yanukovych has recently declared integration with the EU as a goal. At the same time, he wants to maintain the partnership with Russia. Moscow has not objected to this.

- How could the EU support the democratization of Belarus?

- The EU has recently been a little shy, to put it cautiously. Brussels has always stressed that it has to consider Russia and its interests in the region. But there is no problem with this at all anymore. Why does the EU not say clearly that it would also welcome changes in Belarus? Sixteen years of Lukashenka’s dictatorship are really enough. Only on Monday did the EU foreign ministers decide in Luxembourg that EU sanctions will remain suspended. Even Lukashenka is allowed again to travel to the EU, and the Pope has received him. The EU should finally declare that it does not want to have any more dealings with Lukashenka, that he is not the rightfully elected president of Belarus.