“Black scenario” for Lukashenka

One of the regime’s ideologists reveals the truth about the real situation in the country.

Successes of a young country in the center of Europe in building a sovereign state raise nothing but envy. Envy is a quiet, latent, invisible process that cannot always be verified. It’s hard to predict in what this process can result in the international arena, “Belorusskie Novosti” writes.

Any curious person can read A. Amalrik to find the conceptual framework for understanding the text.

Let’s consider not a very fantastic scenario adjusted for the forthcoming political campaign of course.

General background: deterioration of economic conditions, real inflation rate in the first half of the year exceeds 16%, prices for food, petrol, utility services are constantly growing, customs duties and excise taxes are rising, income from traditional export items is falling. The decrease in real income is also caused by reduced work days or unpaid leaves throughout the country, freezing and/or cut in states wages.

Butter

General background: a jump in foreign loans, increasing pressure by credit-lending countries, lack of confidence in the government from investors, demands by other countries to reconsider the main principles of the domestic policy, i.e. to reduce governmental expanses, carry out privatization in certain sectors, cut social programmes, raise pension age. Plus a break with main allies and sponsors.

Guns

The worst-case scenario: the authorities choose harsh stabilization measures that provoke local protests suppressing by the law-enforcement bodies as possible. Trade unions are shaking unable to restrain workers from strikes under first economic and then political slogans. The first sign is a national 24-hour strike that paralyzes most of the country, governmental institutions are closing, flights are delayed, traffic of trains and cars is blocked.

The atmosphere is aggravated with “sleeping” extremist groups and organizations in the country, which will start mass violent activity. The crisis unites the local ultras and allows them to attract unsatisfied young workers and permanently grouchy intellectuals and/or students.

Media factor: ahead the national political campaign, the media of the neighbouring countries take concerted actions to cover the events in our country in a negative way. The growing amount of critical information cannot but attracts attention. Interest and scandalous character are caused among other things by compromising information about high-ranking officials. In the fourth quarter of the year (October), information about resuming the gas war leaks into the media becoming the main theme of the national electoral campaign.

Europe expresses its concern. Facing renaissance of the mutual relations, the neighbours of the blue-eyed BelarusTM say the near-border underground gas storages have enough gas for timely supplies under the reached arrangements until the Nord Stream is put into operation. Europe welcomes the foresight of GazpromTM.

With a shout ‘Foreign countries” a populist candidate, who is “far from the opposition”, appears on the stage. He offers the slogans “I’ll return heat and money to your houses”, “Belarus is open to the world”, “We have nothing to share with neighbours”, etc. The populist is promoted via the Internet and mobile communications (social networks, resources that are not registered in Belarus, bla bla bla), satellite TV, word-of-mouth advertising. Under the pressure of the masses, the populist and his team gain the right to take part in talks over gas and gas transit. After sad New Year (without money and heat), two weeks before the elections, the press announces them the authors of the success.

Curtain

The best-case scenario: I am working on it right now.