The Wall Street Journal: Belarus IPO plans are unrealistic

Plans by cash-strapped Belarus to take its state-run companies public on foreign stock markets are unrealistic for at least the next few years, analysts said.

The assets, whose prices are being pushed down by the weak condition of the Belarussian economy, are destined to end up in the hands of Russian firms, they warned. Hardly any non-Russian investors would be interested in the secretive firms of Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has vowed to privatize some state companies in exchange for a $3 billion bailout loan from a Russia-led stabilization fund.

The money, however, will come in tranches over the next three years, and Belarus needs another $3 billion as early as this year, Julia Tseplaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow said. “Lukashenko doesn’t care about the financial realities, he believes there can be an IPO if he needs money, and he has ordered an IPO,” Ms. Tseplyaeva said.

None of the Belarussian companies has ever held an international IPO, and few have bothered publishing their financial results, operating in the Soviet-style command economy.

“Any company looking to sell equity to portfolio investors will have to produce international standard accounts for the past several years, and will also have to have a transparent operating structure and a clearly stated business plan,” said Chris Weafer, strategist and head of research for Russia at ING.

Belarus will hold a foreign stock exchange IPO of open-pit dump truck maker BelAz at the end of the year, Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said last week. “BelAz is going to be our first pancake on the IPO matter,” Mr. Semashko told journalists, apparently referring to the saying about the first pancake coming out too lumpy.

The Lukashenko official didn’t explain exactly what he meant. Belaruskali, the local potash maker, is next in line, Mr. Semashko added. A person close to one of the Belarussian company’s IPO preparations said holding the placement in the next few years is “unrealistic,” but added that he and his colleagues “work hard” to meet Mr. Lukashenko’s target.

Sales to strategic investors appears to be a more likely option for Belarus, who faces limited options amid the less than perfect relationship between Mr. Lukashenko and the European Union, said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist and director at Troika Dialog said. China is mainly interested in international resource assets, he added.

At the end of the day, Minsk may end up with Russian car maker AvtoVAZ taking control of BelAz and Russian potash maker Uralkali buying Belaruskali, Mr. Weafer said.