Lukashenka cannot find salvation even in Russia

Belarusians have been reduced to poverty, but not by the sanctions.

Dr. Joerg Forbrig, Director of the Fund for Belarus Democracy under the German Marshall Fund (berlin) has answered questions of Radio Svaboda.

- This year you have been actively speaking in favour of European sanctions against Belarus. What results are expected by you?

- It is important to stress that the sanctions approved by the European Union are partially symbolic. In this way the EU demonstrates its concern over the fact that the Belarusian regime continues to violate basic human rights, democratic standards. As far as I understand, they are not aimed at changing the model of political, social and economic development of Belarus as such. As such changed could be initiated and implemented by Belarusians themselves only. In any case, I think that Europe wants citizens of Belarus to make their choice freely. And the changes expected by Europe are guaranteed human rights for Belarusian citizens, their well-being. And we also want Belarus to become a more reliable partner and neighbour in Europe, than it is now.

- Which examples and data have been used by you when you were speaking in support of the sanctions?

- Well, first of all I think that the US sanctions in 2007-2008 against Belneftekhim were decisive for release of Alyaksandr Kazulin and other political prisoners. Secondly, the EU sanctions after the presidential election 2010 have demonstrated that the EU is ready for resolute actions in relations with the Belarusian regime as never before. And we saw that the regime has responded to that. For instance, they tried to destroy the European unity, by inviting the Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov to Minsk in order to “discuss relations.” I think that the reaction of Lukashenka’s regime to the EU sanctions itself is already a signal of their effectiveness. And thirdly, Lukashenka’s regime threatens to apply harsh measures in response to the EU sanctions adopted in late March. But at the same time, there are no actions on the part of Minsk. It looks as if Minsk simply has no decision now. Sometimes it looks as if Lukashenka is ready to make peace. He has even announced that he is ready to reconsider the cases of the political prisoners. He has even expressed his wish to start a dialogue with the EU. To my mind, all that is a result of the EU sanctions.

- Does it mean that common Belarusians are harmed by them as well?

- I think it is obvious that Belarusians are suffering from Lukashenka’s regime only, and not from anything else. Lukashenka stays in power for 18 years already, and the EU sanctions have been in force for just a very short period of time. And despite that, the regime is getting more and more repressive to its citizens. Even if we take examples from the economy: over the last year the trade turnover between the EU and Belarus has grown by 200%, but at the same time the Belarusian national currency has been devaluated by 300%. I think it is a vivid example that not European sanctions have reduced the nation to poverty, but it was the Belarusian government in Minsk.

- To be in favour of the sanctions or against them is yet another line which has divided the Belarusian opposition.

- Yes, we realize that oppositional politicians do not have a shared vision on the European sanctions. But we only welcome variety of view and discussions which are taking place between Belarusian analysts, political leaders. Over the last year the number of those oppositional leaders who insist that measures of influence on Belarus by Europe has systematic nature, has apparently grown. And among other things, they say economic sanctions should be used. At the same time, the number of those who would not like such measures, is falling. And it is a clear change in the way of thinking of the Belarusian opposition.

- Dzyanis Melyanstou, an analyst if the BISS, in one of his interviews expressed an opinion that Minsk is “asking” for the European sanctions, to demonstrate that Europe cannot do anything o Belarus. Do you agree to such an opinion?

- I think it could be still discussed. Firstly, we know that Lukashenka have been practicing throwing out challenges to Europe for many years, feeling for the limits in this contest and looking for weaknesses. We have seen many times, and even not ago, how Lukashenka made statements against certain European leaders and even entire countries. So I am going to say that provocation is a part of Lukashenka’s political game. And he uses it both against Europe and Russia.

But it seems to me that of late Lukashenka has lost intuition about the Europe’s policy and which position it can take. To begin with, I think that he was greatly surprised when the EU adopted a decision to recall all their ambassadors. It was an unusual sign of unity of the EU countries. And he was so obviously surprised that Minsk has not found an appropriate answer yet.

But at the same time, the European Union is still learning what is to be done to Belarus. Earlier we tried to appeal to Minsk and impose a closer dialogue. But these attempts proved to be futile. I think that the disband of the protesters on the Square on December 19, 2010 made the EU to look for new methods of influence on Belarus, including sanctions. And to my mind, there is a rather confident circle of countries and separate politicians in the EU who understand that the mild measures of influence usual for the EU policy are not enough for such regimes as Lukashenka’s. And it is a new concept of European policy. I hope that they are going to continue forming these new methods and policy in order to influence the changes in Belarus more effectively than before.

Frankly speaking, no one of those who oppose the sanctions has so far offered any other instruments for relations with the Belarusian authorities.

- You are writing that Lukashenka’s regime has become weak now as never before. And you show three factors which have weakened it considerably: the economic pressure on the part of Russia, failure of the dialogue with Europe and an example of Arab spring. Isn’t there a threat that finding himself in a situation of a weak player under pressure of Europe, Lukashenka would seek salvation in Russia, gradually giving up independence?

- I would say that the weakness of Lukashenka’s regime is obvious, especially in the recent years. One can once again recall the factors which I had been writing about and which I continue to talk about. But the most important question is independence of Belarus in the situation of Europe’s pressure and Russia’s support. It is a question on which a variety of opinions exists. But I believe that there is no salvation in Russia for Lukashenka. And Lukashenka realizes that more than anybody else. Russia is hardly interested in Lukashenka as a person. It is probably interested in his regime a little. It suits its strategic interests, including military interests, economic interests and so on. But I think that Lukashenka perfectly well knows the boundaries he cannot overstep easily. The deeper the integration with Russia is, the easier it is to lose power in his own country. The best example is the union of Belarus and Russia, which has not taken place to some extent. While he is giving away state assets to Russia, he can give up for lost what he calls “the Belarusian model of economy.” That is why he had been fighting the desire of Russia to buy Belarusian companies for so long.

That is why I think the independence of Belarus is a basic condition for Lukashenka’s existence, and it has not changed over the last year. He has been defending it for so long, maneuvering between the West and the East. For this exactly reason the pressure from Europe would not make him seek salvation in Russia.