European Union should not play by dictator’s scenario

Lukashenka is trying to sell political prisoners again, in exchange for loans and the Ice Hockey World Championship, human rights activists believe.

The Days of Belarus were held in Stockholm on April 24-26. In the framework of the event, organized by Swedish human rights organization Östgruppen, discussion on the situation in Belarus was held. The following topics were discussed: “Stifled voices in the mass media and on the web,” “Belarus is the only country in Europe where death penalty is used,” “Political prisoners,” “What could be done by the EU to help democracy in Belarus.”

Representatives of the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Sweden, human rights organisations Amnesty International, Östgruppen, Civil Rights Defenders, diplomats, public leaders and journalists have taken part in the Days of Belarus. The editor-in-chief of charter97.org website Natallya Radzina, representatives of the human rights centre “Vyasna”, Valyantsin Stefanovich and Andrei Paluda, the head of the Legal Transformation Centre Alena Tankachova, the deputy chair of the Belarusian Association of Journalists Andrei Bastunets, a lawyer and political analyst Yury Chavusau, representatives of the International Observation Mission of the International Control Committee Yury Dzibladze and Olga Zakharova have been invited to the event.

“We are organisning the days of Belarus for the first time, but we want it to become a traditional annual event, where we are going to get information across to the Swedish society about what is going on in Belarus, and mainly about the human rights situation. We had been planning to organize such days long ago, but as it turned out, now is the right time for such an event, as all the topics which were brought up in these days were relevant. They include the relations between the EU and Belarus, and which is especially important now, after Andrei Sannikov and Zmitser Bandarenka’s release, the issue of political prisoners’ release. The topic of freedom of the media and freedom on the web has become especially vital as it has turned out that a Swedish company, TeliaSonera, cooperates with Belarusian secret services closely.

We want to attract attention of European politicians to the extremely severe situation in Belarus, which has considerably deteriorated since moment of the election in 2010. The pressure on Lukashenka’s regime should not be eased, it should be continued. The concessions we saw when Sannikov and Bandarenka were released, are a result of the pressure, but this does not mean that the sanctions should be lifted, on the contrary, they should be continued to be imposed. Release of other prisoners of conscience and carrying out of system-level reforms should be demanded, as without that we would stay in a vicious circle and would not come to anything,” said the leader of Östgruppen Martin Uggla.

At the conference in Stockholm Natalya Radzina told about the situation in the sphere of freedom of speech in Belarus through the example of crackdown on charter97.org website. Numerous criminal cases were opened against the news website, the website offices were in fact robbed several times, equipment was seized, the founder of the website Aleh Byabenin was murdered, and the journalist herself was imprisoned. Besides, Radzina told about the situation with political prisoners in Belarus, about tortures they experienced and are still subjected to. She noted that today it is necessary to push for release of all prisoners of conscience from prisons, and it is also necessary to free from charges the persons sentenced to restriction of freedom: the journalist of Novaya Gazeta Iryna Khalip, a presidential candidate Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu, a young leader Anastasiya Palazhanka and many other oppositionists. Besides, as never before the issue of exoneration of political prisoners is vital, as all of them are deprived of civil rights, they do not have a right to go abroad, and are under a constant threat of a new detention. Lukashenka has given to understand to each of them personally that in case they would not keep their mouths shut, they are going to turn up in prison “within two hours” again.

Alena Tankachova has read out a letter from prison from a presidential candidate Mikalai Statkevich, who has written that the pressure on Lukashenka’s regime should be stopped in no case. “System-level changes are necessary, otherwise all our humiliation and suffering would be senseless,” the political prisoner writes.

Valyantsin Stefanovich told about the situation with the chairman of “Vyasna” human rights centre Ales Byalyatski, stressing that the state of health of the political prisoner in prison had deteriorated. His sight has failed of late. For this reason he was suspended of work (he sews mittens) for some time, until he is prescribed glasses.

Andrei Paluda has focused attention on the problem of death penalty in Belarus. He told about the execution of Uladzislau Kavalyou and Dzmitry Kanavalau, who had been charged with committing a terrorist attack in Minsk metro.

The question what the EU could do in order to promote democracy in Belarus was answered by representatives of the International Observation Mission of the Committee of the International Control over the Human Rights Situation in Belarus.

“First of all I would like to tell about the critical mistake made by the European Union when they adopted curtailed sanctions. For instance, sanctions against oligarch Chyzh were adopted, but all his enterprises selling oil products stayed outside these sanctions.

What will Lukashenka do now? Let us look at the context in which the political prisoners’ release has taken place. We are promised that there would be amnesty in summer. It means, he has won the April. No decisions would be adopted this month, sanctions expanding is out of the question for sure. And Lukashenka is likely to receive May as well, “for contemplation.”

And what is scheduled for May? A meeting with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The regime counts upon cooperation with this organization very much. Even Yermakova says that in case the IMF would not give money, Belarus is going to cooperate with the EBRD. Formally the EBRD refused to cooperate with the state, but if there is any progress with human rights, consequently, this decision could be reconsidered. In May a meeting of the Ice Hockey International Federation is to take place, and its outcome can be interesting.

What will happen in June? Beside a planned amnesty, one should not forget that the session of the UN Council on Human Rights is to take place in Geneva, and the Belarusian issue is to be discussed there, and probably a Special Rapporteur is to be appointed. It means that June has been won as well, instead of appointment of a Special Rapporteur some progress could be noted. And with such a document it would be possible to go and ask for money.

Lukashenka has received everything he wanted from Russia, and namely oil. Now his main objective is to sell oil products to the West. And to avoid sanctions and to receive loans. And in such a way the regime would be able to endure till September, when the “parliamentary election” is to be held in Belarus, when populist measures are needed. And in addition, another annual meeting of the IMF will be held in September-October. Then they can go there and ask for money again. That’s the complicated situation the European Union has put itself into.

What should be done? First of all, clear demands should be placed on the table, and secondly it should be understood that softening of rhetoric for the Western audience does not mean that the situation inside the country has eased. There should be no reopening of the dialogue with the dictatorship, no renewal of financial aid without release and full rehabilitation of political prisoners (it’s unacceptable that Sannikov would not be cleared from the criminal record for 8 years!), and certainly without certain reforms of legislation. Otherwise the regime would have one face for the West, and a different one for Belarus,” a Russian human rights activist Olga Zakharova said.

The president of the Russian Centre of Democracy and Human Rights Development Yury Dzhibladze noted:

“This discussion whether the sanctions should be imposed or not, started in summer last year. And only a more than half a year later very limited sanctions were adopted. Unfortunately, the range of companies which were selected for sanctions, did not include the leading oil traders. We see that the record of the last year when the Belarusian authorities had a positive balance in trade with the European Union, $6 billion, can be easily hit this year. We are observing an ongoing growth. That is why it happens so that despite the sanctions which had been imposed with great effort, considering the position of a number of countries which have direct business interests in Belarus, the regime continues to receive money from the European Union in the form of trade surplus.

And if furthermore the sanctions are lifted (as Carl Bildt said recently), it would happen as if everything is going on the way Lukashenka wanted from the start. He has sold political prisoners, exchanged people for money.

The European Union should not play according to the dictator’s scenario. It is impossible to change the nature of this regime by persuasion. Only a naïve person or a hypocrite can seriously talk about some gradual Europeanization. Only drastic measures of economic influence, which are a really effective leverage, can change the situation.

The European Union must have its strategy, and not to play by the rules of Lukashenka. A strategy where the talking point, not necessarily for a direct talk, should be a concrete road map of changes, which should go further than the release and rehabilitation of political prisoners. Without system-level changes in the sphere of the rule of law, independent judicial system, freedom of expression, assembly and association, it is impossible to talk about any realistic chances for changing the situation in the country.

And a crucial point is to have a direct dialogue of the EU with the Belarusian society. On the one hand, pressure in the form of smart economic sanctions, aimed against the regime, and on the other hand, much more active interaction with the Belarusian society, for it to realize advantages of the European choice. The most obvious and in fact the easiest move which does not require any substantial expenses, is cancellation of visa fees for Belarusians. No bilateral agreements with the Belarusian authorities are needed for that, it is easy and simple.”