Egidius Vareikis: Lukashenka is not Gorbachev – he will not change by himself

The EU is doing nothing for changes in Belarus, the Lithuanian MP believes.

At the background of the recent statements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania about the necessity to release political prisoners in Belarus a press-conference of Uladzimir Drazhyn and representatives of the Confederation of Lithuanian Industrial Workers took place in Vilnius. In the course of the eventwords were voiced of “strategic partnership” of the two countries and the ambassador of Belarus did not answer the question of Lithuanian journalists about political prisoners, having noted that it was not the topic of the conference.

Again, the other day at the embassy of Lithuania in Minsk there was an event on the development of tourism between the countries. In the recent day already several questions arose which Lithuania and Belarus had not been able to sole in several years, among which is the issue of border area travel.

Next week another Lithuanian-Belarusian economic forum will take place in Klaipeda. It is interesting that on the eve of the forum Belarusian official media are full of optimism about the economic cooperation of the two countries, claiming, for example, the growth of potassium fertilizers transportation in Klaipeda (here it would be relevant to mention the threats of the Belarusian regime to redirect the cargo flow from the Baltic countries to Russian ports).

At the same time a part of Western politicians and opposition forces in Belarus stand for limiting contacts with the representatives of Belarusian regime and for introducing economic sanctions. Other part of European politicians and Belarusian oppositionists stand for a dialogue with the regime. The recent discussion of the so-called dialogue on modernization with Belarus in Brussels serves as an evidence to that.

In an interview to charter97.org on the current situation the head of the parliament group of Lithuanian Seimas “For Democratic Belarus”, a conservative, representative of Lithuania in the Council of Europe Egidius Vareikis put it simply: Aliaksandr Lukashenka is not Gorbachev – he will not change by himself.

- Should they keep the economic cooperation considering that Belarusian authorities do not fulfill the EU’s main demand of releasing the political prisoners?

- I recollect the times of Ronald Reagan and recently passed away Margaret Thatcher. Then the questions and answers were very clear: that the economic cooperation is developing does not mean that we do not pay attention to political prisoners. A country, which has political prisoners, does not become better for the reason that it has oil. Current dictators try to impose such a scheme on us: we give you oil, and you do not pay attention to human rights. If we agree to that, then our foreign policy turn into trade and we say that we are not interested in all that. But we are not interested in human rights and values, then there will be wars and other problems.

I will again turn to the last decade of the Cold War. The current generation no longer knows that there was trade with the USSR, there were oil and gas pipelines, the West received it all, but no one said that we would not pay attention to human rights. This is what brought nearer the end of the USSR. Now, in principle, Europe demands the same only in a softer form. I do not think it is a good policy. We are glad one political prisoner is pardoned, but it still means that a criminal record remains and it is a “good president” who releases him. The situation is very complicated, and there are people in Europe, who look at that in a principled way. There are others, who look at that this way: why do we need some Ales Bialatski, when there is gas or some mineral fertilizers. Such an approach leads to wars and conflicts.

- Are you a supporter of a tough approach?

- I am a supporter of a principled position. I always recollect my favorite politician Reagan, who was not shy to openly say what an “Evil Empire” was. I may buy apples from that empire, but it does not become better because of that. All evil empires want to buy certificates of freedom for natural resources. There are countries that believe that sooner or later we will give them such certificates. I say that if we do that, we will be in big troubles.

- What is your position on inviting or not inviting Belarusian officials to the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius and communication with them as such?

- There were prognoses that one should try negotiate with authoritarian regimes. But, as you see, neither Bialatski, nor anyone else felt better because of the EU’s softening its position. It even became worse. If we keep doing that, then nothing will change in Belarus. There is such a craze, in my view incorrect, that dates back to the times of Mikhail Gorbachev. Then a person appeared, who decided himself that he was not a dictator and we got ourselves a theory that all dictators are actually good people, one should only wait. So we have been waiting for 20 years already, we have always said that Belarus is the last dictatorship, which will collapse. Now we see that there more and more dictatorships appear and it is fairly easy to be a dictator. In one of my articles I wrote that dictators sleep better than leaders, elected democratically. It seems to us that we can negotiate with them, but in a long term perspective whey will demand more and more. It all reminds of the years before the Second World war, when public stopped adhering to principles, made concessions to Hitler and Stalin. In the end it led to the war.

- The other day Belarusian official media stroke with headlines, saying that, possibly, the process of solving the issue of border area travel with Lithuania would start again etc. With this or that event, important to the Belarusian regime, approaching it pulls some kind of trump cards (in essence those are bilateral agreements, not followed by the Belarusian stakeholders). Is not it that the regime uses Lithuania?

- Of course, it does. They have already multiply won because we took their promises as something that had already been done. They say, that they would do this and that next year, and you give us that. And we are glad since for us it is the best concept to have Lukashenka, who is slash Gorbachev and wants changes himself. And we are glad every time to believe that. We believe promises many times but still nothing has been fulfilled. I am not a one hundred percent optimist, but there are people, who would say that it would be good for Belarus. May be border area travel is good for people, but it is not for the regime. Until the regime change nothing will come out of it, it is all a fiction.

- How in couple words would you describe such a tactic of official Minsk’s towards Europe?

- The top establishment in Minsk sleeps well, since elections are held according to the rules of an authoritarian regime. It is impossible to win a football game when the teams have different chances and rules. We sometimes make mistakes, when we think that united opposition can win Lukashenka’s elections. While the system wants to be a system, and we wait until it changes by itself, and will wait until the system or the dictator decided to change. We are not doing anything for the system to change. We are afraid of sanctions ourselves, afraid to harm people. I lived in the USSR when Reagan applied sanctions against it, and I was very happy about that.

- If we speak of the Russian factor…

- We are afraid that Belarus will fall into the hands of Russia. It has always been in Russia’s hands, when did it leave them?

- What is your prognosis for the near future, what should be the EU’s strategy?

- You may say that I am wrong, but it was not Gorbachev, who started Perestroika in the Soviet Union. He would probably, have not started it, if there had not been such politicians as Reagan and Thatcher, who made him do it, they were simply not afraid of the USSR and made him start Perestroika. When we have new Ronalds and Margarets, then Lukashenka will become a Gorbachev.