Andrei Sannikov: Opposition can unite in difficult situation

The leader of the European Belarus civic campaign told, what EU’s strategy towards Lukashenka could be the most efficient.

In the opinion of the presidential candidate in Belarus in 2010, the leader of the European Belarus civic campaign Andrei Sannikov, the European Union has all the leverage for the pressure on the Lukashenka regime. In an interview to Deutsche Welle the politicians explained why the leadership of Belarus should not be invited to the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November.

- Last week the USA and EU have lifted sanctions from several Belarusian enterprises, which were introduced after the elections in December 2010. How do you assess this step?

- It is necessary to note that the USA’s sanctions were introduced not because of human rights violations in Belarus, but due to national security reasons. But it is hardly a mere coincidence anyway, when Brussels and Washington cancel sanctions simultaneously. I think there is a bargain going on over the issue of the release of political prisoners, and the West this way sends signals for possible coming back to the dialogue.

I am skeptical about the reduction of the black list of Belarusian enterprises, against which sanctions have been introduced. The thing is that as soon as a bargain starts, Minsk demands further easing of restrictions, and the fate of political prisoners falls under a greater threat.

- Recently the only demand has remained in the EU’s list, the fulfillment of which conditions the resumption of the dialogue? – the release of political prisoners in Belarus. What is your opinion on that?

- This is the result of the absence of a clear policy on the part of the EU. It could have been developed as early as in 2011, when Brussels seriously questioned the results of the presidential elections, and the minister of foreign affairs of Sweden, Poland, Germany and Czech Republic claimed that Aliaksandr Lukashenka lost the elections. The EU could then claim full illegitimacy of the incumbent regime and significantly help the Belarusian civil society and opposition. But now it seems that the times are coming back, when dictator’s lobbyists are trying to prove that he can be re-educated.

- The European Parliament is planning on suggesting a common strategy on Belarus in autumn, which Belarusian opposition has long been criticizing the EU for lacking. What approaches could make such a strategy more efficient, and what values should it pursue?

- If Europe recognizes that there is a dictatorship in Belarus, can it allow having such an unpredictable country at its Eastern border? If it cannot, and that is what I believe, then it should decide what to do for the situation to change.

The EU’s line of behavior should be developed for a long-term perspective, which means it should be a strategy of relations with Belarus, the goal of which is the change of the dictatorial regime. It should not be a reaction policy like it is now – when Minsk strengthens the repressions, the EU introduces visa sanctions for officials. And when Lukashenka’s lobbyists tell about the improvement of the situation, the EU declares the possibility of a dialogue. Such shifts only benefit the dictator.

It is necessary to remember the coherent policy of the USA and Europe at the end of the 80-ies, which led to the liberation of Eastern Europe. The EU has all the instruments and leverage for that today, and Belarus needs such a policy, because the situation in the country is not improving, repressions against NGO activists, journalists and political opposition do not stop. And Europe at the same time is being suggested that there is nothing bad in it, since it is beneficial to have relations with the dictatorship for developing business.

- Should the Belarusian leadership be invited to the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius?

- When the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative was intended, it was the matter of common democratic values, which the participant countries were supposed to share. Since this condition is in no way followed by Belarus, then representatives of the regime should not participate in such summits.

- But it is deemed that the situation with human rights in Belarus is not worse than in some other Eastern Partnership participant countries.

- Talks about Europe’s double standards is nothing else than Belarus’ KGB developments. One should remember that Lukashenka has been in power illegally for 19 years already, his service record of rigged elections and referendums has not been excelled by any other Eastern Partnership member-state. That is why I deem it absolutely appropriate to pay special attention to the situation with human rights in Belarus in the context of the participation of its representatives in this EU’s program.

- 24 years ago first free election were held in Poland after the authorities and Solidarity had negotiated at a round table the conditions of the participation of the opposition in the electoral campaign. To what extent is such a scenario possible in Belarus?

- This is impossible in Belarus with Lukashenka, because the power as such is important to a dictator, and he will not go for negotiations with opposition. The situation was favorable in Poland for the oppositionists and the communist authorities to think together of the country’s future. The Soviet Union then was cracking and could no longer provide support for the regimes in Eastern Europe.

General Wojciech Jaruzelski, who introduced martial law in Poland, is an ambiguous figure, but he did not deny the culture and history of the country and was capable of thinking of its fate. Lukashenka cannot be re-educated, because it is a dictator worried about the preservation of his personal power.

- How will the situation in Belarus further develop?

- It is difficult for those, who are trying to do something for changing it in Belarus itself. But there is definite denial of the regime in the whole society too, which has been driven into the non-public sphere by fear. It will find a release, and there will be an explosion, since Lukashenka stopped being a guarantor of safety for all the layers of population and professional groups with the exception of the establishment and a handful of businessmen whom he threatens with prison.

- The question is who would come to power in this case. Is Belarusian opposition ready for this?

- I think so. Despite the divergence in opinions, the opposition repeatedly showed that it is capable of agreeing and taking responsibility when there is a chance to challenge the regime.