Economists: Devaluation of the Belarusian ruble is certain to happen

In the nearest future Russian's economic crisis will hurt the Belarusian currency.

A dollar in Moscow already costs 72 Russian rubles. These are stock market data at 8 p.m. on December 16. A few hours before, the rate was equal to 78 rubles! Nobody knows what is going to happen next, "Nasha Niva" reports.

Any expert is sure that the Russian crisis hurts Belarus too. Belarusian exports amounted to $31.3 billion in January-October in 2014 with Russia's share in exports equaled to 45%. Payments with our eastern neighbor are increasingly being provided with Russian rubles.

What should the Belarusians expect in the nearest future?

Dzmitry Kruk, an associate expert of IPM Research Center, believes that the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus should think several moves ahead of how to respond to the crash in Russia. In his view, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian one should be equal to the one we had at the beginning of the year.

The exchange rate was 290 Belarusian rubles per Russian one. It turns out that the dollar should cost 60-70 times more - about 20, 000 Belarusian rubles.

Vadzim Iasub, the financial analyst of the official partner of "Alpari" in Minsk, says that the Belarusian ruble should be more flexible: "A year ago, the principle of exchange rate mechanism was set up - every trading session dollar either is up to 10 rubles or stays flat. The selected method does not change against all things happening out of the country.

It is time to abandon it and act in accordance with the Guidelines for monetary policy; it means that the exchange rate of the national currency must change under the influence of supply and demand".

What is going to happen with the Belarusian ruble in this case? "Exchange rates would rise, but not directly following the Russian ruble. It makes sense to focus on three currency baskets such as dollar, euro and the Russian ruble", Vadzim Iasub proposes. Then the fall of the Russian ruble "broadens out" on three currencies so that will cushion the effect of the devaluation in the country.

Political analyst Valery Karbalevich also does not believe in the prospects of the Belarusian ruble: "Will our authorities be able to get loans from abroad? If they fail so we will have the devaluation, he said. - This is a challenge for the Government. But our ruble will surely weaken".

"The economic situation will depend on the actions of the Government and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. If nothing changes then the inflation will made up 20-30%, and our ruble may have the same downturn as the Russian one, Stanislau Bahdankevich, a former Chairman of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, says. "The inflation must be finally reduced to a single-size rate. The planned 13% are out of the frames, the maximum figure must be equal to 5% and if this is not possible then at least less than 10%", he says.

"The economic crisis is inevitable. It is caused both by internal and external roots. The following year and 2016 will be very difficult for the Belarusians. Maybe not as difficult as it was in 2011, but the situation will be comparable. I see through blue glasses", Yuri Zisser, the founder and owner of web portal TUT.by.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian authorities do not declare the readiness to let the national currency float freely.

The exchange rate mechanism in Belarus is not economic, but political issue, so it is not the fact that it is generally the purview of the National Bank. The National Bank should be instructed or at least should get the permission to waive the same strategy", Vadzim Iasub sums up.

"The economic situation is clearly going to be worse, but it is hard to say about its scale. After all, both the oil price and the future of the Russian economy remain undetermined. There will be trade wars. And Russian support will be reduced. Hopefully, the oil duties, we have agreed upon, would be reconsidered. The general background of relations with Russia will be quite nervous. But it will not be for good. There are two variants: the situation will be either worse or much worse", this is the forecast for 2015 made by Dzmitry Kruk, who accurately predicted the previous Belarusian crisis and economic dynamics after it.