Belarusian authorities prepare for official devaluation

The National Bank's decision to reduce the exchange fee was inevitable. 

Aliaksandr Mukha, financial analyst of BusinessForecast.by Research Group, stated that, BelaPAN writes.

According to him, in the third decade of December it became unprofitable for exporters to sell foreign currency in the domestic market because of increased (from 30% to 50%) surrender of foreign exchange proceeds and set exchange fee (30%). 

"That was the situation when exporters, on the one hand, had to sell currency at the official rate and buy it with 30% exchange fee. Due to it they were not interested in paying back of currency earnings to the country but were motivated to extend the term for completion of foreign trade contracts", Mukha emphasized.

Financial analyst believes that the decision on the exchange fee reduction and the increase of an official exchange dollar rate is inevitable as it has been necessary to engage currency trading exporters in the domestic market. 

"This decision is the sign for exporters to pay back currency to the country. Now exporters have less reasons to go long of currency earnings so they can get more Belarusian rubles for selling out currency", Mukha underlined. 

Then he added that the increase in the official exchange dollar rate was the step in the right direction and in terms of exchange rate policy, which aimed to eliminate the multiple exchange rates of the Belarusian ruble. 

"Unlike the 2011, this time authorities do not intend to prolong the period of multiple exchange rates of the Belarusian ruble and in the near future, probably, will unify the exchange rate. The exchange fee reduction is a preparatory step to official devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. The unification of the exchange rate will stop undisclosed operations in the foreign exchange market, which have recently become more frequent", the expert emphasized.

It should be reminded that on December 19 the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus announced the introduction of a 30% exchange fee obligatory for individual and legal entities when buying foreign currency. After that, the foreign exchange market has had multiple exchange rates of the Belarusian ruble: courses in the cash and stock market have been significantly different. On December 29 the National Bank announced the exchange fee reduction to 20% and expressed readiness to follow this tendency in the future.

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