Barys Zhaliba: Belarusian ruble should devalue faster than Russian one

If it does not happen, Belarusian export to Russia will face problems.

Economist Barys Zhaliba told "Salidarnasts", how it's possible to attain the equilibrium ratio of Belarusian and Russian currencies, and what is hindering its implementation.

On Tuesday, January 27, the representative of the Belarusian branch of one of the largest Russian banks made a forecast: Belarusian ruble will continue to devalue until it attains the same ratio with the Russian one, which existed before national currency devaluation in Belarus and the Russian Federation.

Borys Zhaliba, doctor of economics and professor, stressed the equilibrium ratio of the Belarusian and Russian currencies was required to support our export to Russia. "For it the Belarusian ruble must devalue faster than Russian one," the expert explained.

According to the economist it is not necessarily to strive to return to the former rate of Br290 against Russian ruble. "Equilibrium exchange rate will be attained when trading sessions on the stock exchange do not require more presence of the National bank and the exchange rate is based on demand and supply ratio. So far, demand exceeds supply by 1.5 or even by 2 times", he said.

According to the economist, a number of both internal and external factors have an impact on supply and demand ratio: "what our export and emission of ruble will be, how soon oil price reaches its bottom, when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is over and, accordingly, sanctions against Russia will be eased or lifted", the economist believes.

Barys Zhaliba believes that to achieve the equilibrium ratio of currencies economic authorities should increase exports, while expanding its directions, and be not tied to the Russian market only. "If we talk about exporting to the West, then we need to access what we can sell except petroleum products and potassium salt," he noted.

The economist believes that the Government should change the emission policy, abandoning the non-market methods such as subsidizing enterprises, providing them soft credits. "All this should be done, but so far the authorities have failed. I think that soon we should wait for the meeting with Putin, where the issue on another Russia's credit to Belarus will be voiced", he stressed.