Putin to review parade in Minsk

One third of troops at the military parade in Belarus on May 9 will be Russian.

People see what they want to see; hear what they want to hear; believe in what they want to believe and refuse to believe in what they don't like. Swindlers like Lukashenka use it.

During my latest visit to Kyiv, I constantly heard one phrase from different people, among them politicians, diplomats and journalists: “Anyway, Lukashenka won't come to the parade in Moscow!”

I understand it: the country hit by war a where thousands of people die needs victories, small and big, but looking for solace in illusions has always been dangerous.

Let me present the facts.

Yes, Lukashenka said he would not attend the parade in Moscow on May 9, but he admitted he would be in the Russian capital ahead of it, on May 7 and 8. He plans to participate in events in the framework of the Union State, the Eurasian Economic Space, CSTO and CIS and “demonstrate our unity with the Russian people and other nations who appreciate the victory”.

The Belarusian dictator has not attended parades in Moscow for the last 10 years. The last time when he took part in the parade in the Russian capital was in 2005.

Lukashenka organises parades in Minsk every year (sometimes twice a year), because he cannot miss an opportunity to let troops march and military hardware run through the capital centre to please his ill ego and entertain his youngest son Kolia.

The record high number of military hardware from Russia will take part in this year's parade in Minsk on May 9: T-90 tanks, BTR-80, six Pantsir-S1 missiles systems, BMP-3 and BMD-3 infantry fighting vehicles, Tigr all-terrain infantry mobility vehicles, Msta-B artillery systems and Russian SU-34 fighters.

As for Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missiles, the Russian Ministry of Defence says the troops and military hardware of the Aerospace Defence Forces of Russia will take part in the parade in Belarus for the first time.

Besides the hardware, Russia will send more than 300 servicemen – paratroopers, anti-aircraft gunners and tank drivers. “Servicemen of the Russian Federation will take part in the military parade of the Minsk garrison to mark the Day of Victory of the Soviet army and the Soviet people over Nazi Germany in the Great Patriotic War. Guests from the fraternal country will have drills as part of the parade mechanised column,” the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported some days ago.

So, almost one-third (seven) from twenty four parade crews will be from Russia. Putin in fact demonstrates that Minsk is under his full control.

Military exercises involving Russian paratroopers were held near Brest a week ago. Four hundred servicemen demonstrated their courage in battles with the opposing force on the border with Ukraine and Poland.

I'd like to note that Russia's opposing force (not only at exercises) is NATO countries and Ukraine. Russian and Belarusian troops simulated a nuclear strike on Warsaw and a tank breakthrough to Kaliningrad through the EU territory some years ago during the biggest military exercises after the fall of the Soviet Union.

I have the impression that all those in a state of euphoria over the absence of Lukashenka at the parade in Moscow on May 9 (though I do not rule out that he may attended it) forget obvious facts: Belarus is in the union with Russia; the Belarusian dictator created the common air defence system with Russia; our country is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation; Russian military bases, troops and hardware are deployed in Belarus.

By the way, the Russian leadership and media took easy Lukashenka's statement about his absence at the Moscow parade on May 9. Why? It's because the Belarusian satrap badly needs money that Russia cannot give (Russia's budget for 2015 was cut 10%). Belarusian GDP has not been growing for the last five years even without a war. On the contrary, it has been falling. The export has declined 30% this year.

Only western loans can save Lukashenka. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are under way. It explains the sham hostile relations between the dictator and Moscow. The same operation of getting loans was fulfilled in 2008-2009 with Russia's consent. He didn't recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia in exchange for 3.5 billion dollars from the IMF.

Lukashenka had to sell Russia the entire gas transportation system to pay off the loan and thus become even more dependent on Putin.

We need to face the truth: Putin will review the military parades on May 9 both in Moscow and Minsk.

Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of charter97.org, specially for TSN (Ukraine).