Zmitser Bandarenka: Results of presidential elections in Poland and Belarus look similar

The second round of the presidential elections should have been held in Belarus in 2010.

Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of European Belarus civil campaign, said it in an interview with charter97.org, commenting on the results of the first round of the Polish presidential elections.

– How would you comment on the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections in Poland? How did it happen that such sensational results became possible?

– Yes, it was a sensation, because the basic approval rating of current president Bronislaw Komorowski was 67%, while few people knew Andrzej Duda, the main alternative opposition candidate. I can only say that we saw the thing that is described in political consulting books: voters focus on two or three people out of a large number of candidates.

Both Duda and Kukiz carried out active campaigns, while the Civic Platform candidate became a hostage of Polish voters' fatigue with the ruling party. The Civic Platform has been in power for eight years. It has done a lot, and its main achievement is successes in cooperation with the European Union, getting direct financial aid from Brussels and huge investments. At the same time, like any other country, Poland has many problems. I think the mistake of the ruling party was its communication with society. It is not acceptable to “rest on your laurels” in democratic countries when new media, such as social networking websites, appeared.

– Do you think that the campaign of the Polish president was not active enough?

– All say so. In my opinion, Polish media, especially TV, tend to cover one side of events. Most of Polish TV channels are, let's say so, liberal media. The conservative media are only a small part. People didn't see on TV the real problems that worry them: healthcare, education, employment and salaries. It is not a failure of the acting president's campaign, it is a protest of certain groups of people, first of all the youth, against the style of communication between the ruling party and society.

– Votes gained by two leading candidates at the Polish presidential elections remind some people about the latest presidential elections in Belarus, when Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Andrei Sannikov were to meet in the second round.

– Yes, Belarus had 10 candidates and Poland had 11 ones. It's natural that most voters focused on two or three candidates. The results look practically the same. According to our data, Sannikov gained 33-35% in 2010 and Uladzimir Niakliaeu had 15-17%. It was clear that the second round should have been held, which Sannikov, supported by other democratic candidates, would have won. Lukashenka drew more than 80% of votes for himself, leaving less than 10% for the rest candidates. It means that he just “fights” against mathematics, opposes laws of statistics and common sense.

It is absolutely clear that the results of the 2010 elections were rigged. The difference between Poland and Belarus is that in Poland an opposition candidate goes to the second round, and third candidate Kukiz is, perhaps, the most important person in Poland. The election of a new president will depend on how his supporters will vote in the second round.

The real winners in Belarus – opposition candidates – were jailed. It has reasons. It is a demonstration that Lukashenka completely lost the 2010 elections.

Foreign ministers of Sweden, Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic wrote it in their article titled Lukashenko the Loser.

– Will Poland's policy towards Belarus change if Andrzej Duda is elected president, in your opinion?

– It is too early to say who will become the president of Poland. I think the policy towards Belarus will not change whoever will be elected president –Andrzej Duda or Bronislaw Komorowski, because, as the latest session of the Polish Sejm showed, the leading parties have a consensus on Belarus. Belarus is considered to be a dictatorship. Yes, Poland and Belarus countries should trade and maintain contacts, but we can hardly expect a breakthrough unless political changes in Belarus take place.