They Planned to Build "Tesla", but a Tractor Appeared

The prediction for the Belarusian economy is that it's stagnation, if not recession.

Last Sunday Ideya Belarusian magazine learned through prospects of the domestic economy at the Reshape 2017 – Framing the Future of Belarus Forum, thinktanks.by informs.

Uladzimir Kavalkin, the head of the Kosht Urady project, stated he had no high expectations: "I think we will observe the low base effect, a repercussion of a great drop in GDP in recent years. It is not clear what is to happen; no structural reforms in the country are taken, the imbalances accumulated in the country resulted in GDP drop and decline in competitiveness of our economy in the world market. No long-term stable growth is possible without structural reforms. And the authority is still not ready for these reforms. The prediction for the Belarusian economy is that it's stagnation, if not recession. Here Russia is the key figure; more than a half of exports goes there.

Uladzimir Kavalkin noted that "no one has assessed what is more profitable: to throw money in state programs and support state-owned enterprises or just pay unemployment benefits."

Can the IT-sector become a savior of the Belarusian economy?

General Manager of VP Capital Mikalai Markounik: "In fact, the IT sector is no panacea for the economy as a whole. And even those changes that are expected with a possible adoption of decree on digital economy show that the society has a huge number of questions to many other industries. There is a desire that this decree - like a charm - could solve all the issues in the economy but, in fact, it is impossible. Don't come up with a thought that the IT sector can save the economy; a constant work for improvement of management conditions in all other sectors of the economy is required."

Uladzimir Kavalkin also mentioned: "The High-Tech Park and IT business as a whole will not be able to become a driver in a short-term a period because the cycle of programmer becoming is quite long. Of course, one can be reeducated. But there are few people who can do it. To date, IT is changing the structure of the Belarusian labor market so much that the situation can be called catastrophic. Bank managers and nurses go in for testing. Neither the High-Tech Park nor IT is a panacea. The economy needs a comprehensive approach. I criticize the state policy in this sphere. The High-Tech Park, companies that would create a product were planned to affect the Belarusian economy and thereby increase competitiveness. What projects invented by the High-Tech Park do work in the country? There are few of them. This is 90% service sales abroad. I do not say that it is bad. It's good that businessmen started their business and do it successfully. I say that this is the failure of state policy, because,so to speak, we planned to build "Tesla", but a tractor appeared."