Belarusians To Be Under Lock And Key?

There are tectonic shifts on the labour market.

The official labour statistics were quite regretful in April. The situation has not been as worse as since the year 2016. The second quarter of 2018 has starterd from negative things for the authorities.

For the first time in 17 months, the ratio between the accepted for employment and those dismissed has worsened against the comparable period last year. The situation improvement coincided with the growth of the economy of Belarus in the fourth quarter of 2016. Current statistics indicate that the country is falling into a new recession, banki24.by writes.

The shift occurred in March, when employers dismissed 5 thousand people, the same number was dismissed in March of 2017. As a result, if the balance of employed and dismissed was steadily improving last year, in the beginning of this spring this difference has been almost zeroed. The ratio of hired and dismissed was 90.1% in March of 2018, while in March of 2017 it was little more than 90.3%. The negative roll back has occurred for the first time since the end of 2016.

April data were really concerning. In April 2018 employers dismissed 10.3 thousand people more that in the same period last year, and hired only 3.6 thousand employees more than they had dismissed. The difference between hired and dismissed employees equaled to minus 6.7 thousand against the year 2017 in Minsk!

The ratio dropped from 85.9% to 77.7% in comparison with the April of the year 2017. It means that only 77.7 people of 100 have got employment this year. Almost a quarter of jobs were cut.

The entire picture looks as follows. In April 2018 the number of people dismissed exceeded those hired by 14.3 thousand, in April 2017 - by 7.6 thousand. Given absence of data rendered by microenterprises and a part of small companies, these people turned to small business at best. At worst they left for another country.

Even incomplete official statistics on labour migration has recently raising a great concern. Of course, some part of dismissed can be related to a seasonal employment. Every spring seasonal workers are dismissed in the energy sphere. It was much warmer in April 2018 than in the same month of 2017. The heating season was closed a few weeks earlier than last year. This factor justifies only 2.6 of 6.7 thousand people dismissed over the limit of the year 2017.

The layoff wave touched upon almost all spheres and regions in April 2018. The Minsk region suffered the most. For a month this region lost 3.3 thousand employees more than in April 2017. Prosperous Minsk was in the "red" zone. 1.1 thousand people more left the market of the capital in comparison with April of 2017.

It looks like the authorities have abandoned every attempt to reform the system and just drift following changes in the world situation. The labour market signals that the inaction of officials only damages the Belarusian economy. If earlier we sailed, now we risk to drown.