Cockroach Race

Lukashenka has less and less room to maneuver.

The main thing in the story of the ultimatum is that, for the first time, in my opinion, there was a rapprochement between the winning candidate and the people. Until that moment, it was the protesting people of Belarus who determined the course of events, not paying attention to those who tried to speak on their behalf. And many tried to speak, proposing an incomprehensible agenda, putting forward insane initiatives, such as referendums or party building. All these attempts only irritated the protesters. The ultimatum was a sign that the protesters were being heard.

The most important thing in the ultimatum was the demand for Lukashenka's resignation. Until now, the opposition circles, including those around Tsikhanouskaya, have voiced various proposals, sometimes mutually exclusive. Some were perceived as an attempt to bring down, to chatter protests. Such were the attempts to offer a "dialogue" with Lukashenka. And the people on the streets and squares of Belarus accepted the ultimatum as really their own, national. After all, from the first day of the protests, the main slogan was: "Go away!"

It is also noteworthy that the ultimatum appeared after Lukashenka's campaign in the KGB pre-trial detention center, where, on October 10, he organized a meeting with his hostages, including two real and most popular presidential candidates whom he did not admit to the elections and threw them behind bars: Siarhei Tsikhanouski and Viktar Babaryka. The dictator tried to cynically pass off the forced bringing of the illegally detained to the interrogation room as negotiations on "constitutional reform." But this deception was obvious. Moreover, with this performance, Lukashenka has once again demonstrated the deceitful and mean nature of his regime.

The ultimatum became the correct and effective response to all the antics of the dictator and increased the degree of rejection of the entire Lukashenka's gang. Whoever said anything, the ultimatum seriously frightened Lukashenka. This is evidenced by his reaction: hysterical, vicious, and habitually inadequate. The "partisan march" that took place throughout Belarus after the ultimatum only increased his fear. There were a lot of people, more than on the previous Sunday, especially if you take into account all the cities of Belarus. In Minsk, having chosen a new route, the march participants were able to fool the builders of various barriers and cordons.

The dictator began to fuss; various people in uniforms began to appear on his television, openly threatening to use firearms against civilians. Active participants in the regime's crimes publicly promised on camera that they would shoot unarmed people. They, of course, have no idea that by doing so, Lukashenka is actually forcing them to confess on camera. Just loyalty and devotion are not enough for him; he needs accomplices. That's the logic of an experienced criminal.

In parallel, the dictator launched a process of imitation of joint work with the opposition on amendments to the constitution. To do this, he used the recruited agent Yury Vaskresenski, who was released from the KGB prison for "explanatory work with the population" after that meeting in the pre-trial detention center. And this was also a response to the ultimatum, since initially Vaskresenski was assigned the role of a truth-teller who was supposed to reveal the whole truth about the opposition. They even recorded several videos with his participation, in the aesthetics of a village club - everything is as the dictator likes; he is accustomed only to it and requires his propaganda apparatus to strictly adhere to its canons.

The released agent tried to call himself a representative of a group of drafters of the constitution, who are in jail but can be released if they agree to take part in this performance. Through their lawyers, the political prisoners informed them that they had not transferred any powers to anyone. Then the KGB made the following move: released a couple more people under house arrest and hinted that further releases depend on the petition of the same released agent. It didn't work either.

In the meantime, the protests did not curtail. Moreover, the marches of pensioners and people with disabilities have become regular, who for their courage began to be called "people with unlimited opportunities." But Lukashenka responded to this in the same Soviet-style, familiar to the gnashing of teeth: during the march of pensioners, he arranged a procession of retired military men and employees of various internal organs.

However, intimidation, blackmail, recruitment, and calls to "rebuff the intrigues of the West" are no longer taken seriously in Belarus, even by the supporters of the dictator. Lukashenka himself is most frightened by the fact that, despite the brutal dispersal of the first demonstrations and even the murder of demonstrators, despite the torture and humiliation of those arrested in prisons, despite an attempt to repeat the harshest scenario on October 18 during the "partisan march," the Belarusians did not lose their resolve.

The closer the ultimatum expiration date, the more feverishly Lukashenka is looking for ways to counter it. The more difficult it becomes for its PR people and propagandists to hide his inadequacy, pass off fright as confidence, and hysteria as emotional elation.

It seems that the dictator's next serious breakdown happened on October 21 during a "meeting on topical issues," as the council of confidants on the ultimatum was called. There were not many close ones, about twenty people from everywhere, from all official bodies, all law enforcement agencies, courts, the "tent of representatives," regions, cities, administration, and propaganda bodies. Of these two dozen, only a few officials devoured the owner with a glance, demonstrating selfless devotion. The others habitually scribbled in their notebooks without looking up.

The unusual thing about the meeting was that there was no information about it. Usually, during such meetings, the news feed of the state news agency BelTA is full of quotes, which are issued in almost real-time. The stream of consciousness of a talkative dictator spills over into all media. And this time - no information, although part of the stated agenda was quite peaceful. And not even a word on the question of Lukashenka's favorite trick, when, in order to intimidate his subordinates, he draws them the prospects of his eternal rule. At this meeting, he said from the very beginning that he was preparing his all-Belarusian meeting for December and was also thinking about plans for the next five-year plan. But even about that, there was silence.

Then there were leaks of information, from which it followed that Lukashenka demanded the impossible from everyone: to cope with the protests, fill the budget, raise wages, knock out low prices for everything from Russia and not pay debts to anyone. We can't vouch for the reliability of the leaks, but it all seems to be true. It also looks like Lukashenka has yet another breakdown, from which even the state media have become numb.

Apparently, the urgent, three days before the end of Tsikhanouskaya's ultimatum, the visit to Minsk of the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin, is connected with what was happening behind closed doors at a "meeting on topical issues." After all, Lukashenka's close associates are afraid of leaking information to the Belarusian press, and leaks to the Kremlin go instantly and in all details. Moscow, already deeply worried about the consequences of the Belarusian protests for Russia, seems to be deeply alarmed by Lukashenka's inadequacy.

Naryshkin was sent to Minsk as a like-minded person of Lukashenka in the fight against "the intrigues of the damned West" so as not to arouse suspicion. But in fact, this visit was like a diagnostician's visit: he looked at how sane the client was and whether he would completely go crazy. Therefore, one should expect that, in the very near future, Lukashenka's state will be seriously discussed in the Kremlin, and he will be sentenced.

It was the people's ultimatum that gave all these new dynamics to what is happening in Belarus. It made the peaceful offensive against the regime more meaningful and active. The dictatorship continues to cling to illegal power in ways that are outside the bounds of the law, which is bound to elicit a tougher Western reaction. It looks like the march this coming Sunday will be as big as the previous one, and on Monday, there will be a strike that could become national.

Lukashenka's unwillingness to even think about resignation leaves him less and less room for maneuver. The ultimatum added resources to the protests and put the issue of the dictator's resignation at the forefront, after which it would be possible to talk with the nomenklatura about the transition period, the coalition government, and new elections.

Andrei Sannikau, The Insider