Maxim Katz: Lukashenka Will Spend the Rest of His Life in Prison

His entourage should leave the sinking ship of the dictatorship in time.

Russian blogger popular in Belarus, politician and public figure Maxim Katz told Radio Svaboda about the achievements of Belarusians during 100 days of peaceful protest and the fate of Lukashenka.

"There is a complete delegitimization of Lukashenka".

- You are always inspired when talking about peaceful protests in Belarus. What do you think the Belarusians have achieved in 100 days?

- These are global changes in the life of the country. Before these elections, one considered Lukashenka most stable dictator in the post-Soviet space. Everybody knew if you say "Belarus" - you mean Lukashenka, and there could be no protests in Belarus. When one discussed the possibility of protests in Russia and Belarus, they said protests in Russia were more possible, while Belarusians were very peaceful. They would never protest, at most, they could clap their hands and disperse.

Now, if one looks at Lukashenka, his status has drastically changed. His legitimacy is not even dubious, it does not exist at all. Everyone in Belarus or outside its borders who observes the situation does not take him as a real leader of the country. Except for those who directly depend on him and already have their hands dirty - the law enforcers who have not yet taken the protest side.

The pensioners, the elderly are the key supporters of any regime. They already go to the rallies; on Monday, there was a large-scale march of pensioners. It is typical for pensioners to take part in protest rallies. State employees, their income depend on the state, are on strike or go against the regime. Medical professionals protest. Even the detention centre on Okrestina called the hospital and asked to finally send doctors who would not pull for protesters. This is a complete delegitimization of Lukashenka. He has completely lost the basis for his power and stays afloat only in the status of the occupation administration.

- A few days ago, Andrei Makarevich once again expressed support for the Belarusians, he took part in the project Long Live Belarus. He said: "You have already won, but it is not so visible yet. I am with you". When will this victory be noticeable?

- When Lukashenka resigns. How long can the occupation administration survive without a functioning economy, at least some support of citizens, and the opportunity to do business with neighbours? It is impossible to do business with the West and Russia because there are no bargaining instruments that he usually had. He is utterly dependent on Putin now.

How long can one stand? It depends on the activity of the Belarusians. If the activity subsides and the Belarusians decide to stop, not to go to rallies or protests anymore, it will take more time - a few months, or even a year.

If the Belarusians continue protesting, it will happen much faster. Peaceful marches are a political language. When they happen, everyone, including Lukashenka's entourage, all the elites see that he does not control the situation.

"Now everybody's speculating on when to leave the ship."

- Do you think Belarusians "in black" watch Katz?

- I think they do. I know that the elites, people in Lukashenka's entourage, watch my videos. I think they also do. At least, their leadership is watching. I appeal to people who are not in the higher echelons but the middle ones. It is clear that now everybody is speculating when they should leave the ship. I believe that nobody has any doubts that Lukashenka's ship will sink. If one asks the most loyal person to Lukashenka how the situation can develop the next three years, no one can predict the future of the regime. The point is when to leave the ship. They believe that if they leave the ship earlier, one can fire, imprison them or something like that. If they leave the ship late, they will be held liable as participants of those events.

I can tell everyone that one should leave the ship as soon as possible. One can do it publicly as the Ambassador of Belarus in Argentina did. It was a good gesture. It is clear that people like the former ambassador in Slovakia, the former Minister of Culture Latushka, will play major roles and take high positions in new Belarus. They were the first to resign and closed that door. If one scares to slam the door, there are other deterrents, one can at least sabotage or get sick. Soon everything will change. In Russia, our elites may argue that Putinism may last ten years. However, there will be some transit, and people will come to power to restrain the existing system. In Belarus, this scenario will not work for sure. The regime has crossed many red lines that society cannot tolerate. No one from Lukashenka's entourage can take the leading position in the country soon. A year from now, that is for sure. What does a year mean? Someone is 50 years old now, and one will be only 51 years old. Life is long, and people will have to live together. They should think about it now.

"If it catches them in Belarus, they will spend the rest of their lives in prison".

- How do you see Lukashenka's future in new Belarus?

- It will sit next to Yanukovych. He will play cards in our Barvikha. There will be a village for refugee dictators. I do not think he has any other future but to live in Russia. I don't know how one can tolerate him here because he is quite a specific character for the Russian elites. However, one may accept him as part of the canvas of preserving autocrats. Or one may not. If it catches him in Belarus, he will spend the rest of his life in prison.