Demobilization Factor: Army Getting Out Of Lukashenka's Control

A series of mistakes pushes the regime towards the final outcome.

An interesting nuance that analysts have not yet written about is the demobilization factor.

In November, there is a massive demobilization and enlistment of new recruits to the troops, including 3214. Those who have seen everything will come. Those who are experienced will gladly leave, writes the Telegram channel "Reflection and Reaction".

With the arrival of new recruits, a new wave of the process of decomposition of the morale of the units will inevitably start. The more yesterday's students go there, the more the collectives will be shaken. Separately, there will be a question of selecting conscripts in the units involved in the suppression of protests. It will be necessary to somehow select the most loyal, there may not be a queue from those who wish. In addition, the factor of the demographic pit works.

Apart from this, there is a risk that big numbers of recruits may bring COVID-19 to the military units. Here is the question of organizing a long lockdown, which, of course, does not in any way strengthen the combat readiness of the units.

This is superimposed in parallel with the American elections and the risk of Biden's coming, whose position on Belarus he has repeatedly voiced.

In parallel, Russia is predictably opening a "front" in Moldova. It will be difficult to pull Dodon out, as a result there is a risk of getting some noise there. It is necessary to reduce the number of "fronts".

All this, as well as the unabated street, economy and COVID-19, together increase the pressure on the current regime, pushing it to make mistakes, and to a final outcome.