Two Scenarios for the Development of the Situation After the Closure of the Belarusian Border

Both options demonstrate that the authorities do not control the situation.

Closing borders in an export-dependent transit country lacking the fossil resources to provide rent would ruin our own economy.

North Korea, East Germany, Stalinist Russia - all these parallels are purely external and do not correspond to the current state of affairs at the beginning of the 21st century. Only a person who has completely lost touch with reality can order to close the borders, expert Aliaksandr Adamiants writes.

This decision was made under the influence of emotions and not based on rational calculation. This only testifies to the management quality and the level of thinking and perception of those who make such decisions.

In the opinion of Aliaksandr Adamiants, there are two scenarios for the development of the situation: either the authorities will come to their senses and cancel this decision, or it will accelerate the political and economic crisis.

Both options demonstrate that the country's leadership does not control the situation, does not understand how to cope with it; in its arsenal, there is only one method of solving all problems - by force. But force is the last thing that can lead out of the crisis. To destroy everything around - yes, but to handle it - no.

"Analysts are racking their brains over combinations with the VBS, the "reform" of the constitution, trying to calculate a new configuration of power. But all this is too difficult for the army-KGB mind. Everything will end either in scenario one or scenario two described above," writes Aliaksandr Adamiants.