Vladimir Milov: New Wave of Discontent Will Lead to Even Larger Protests in Belarus

Belarusians are showing unprecedented persistence.

Russian opposition politician and blogger Vladimir Milov told Radio Svaboda about the mistakes of Lukashenka and Putin, the lessons of the Belarusian peaceful revolution for the democratic opposition of Russia, a new type of dictatorship, and sanctions that can help.

- The Belarusians have a difficult year ahead. What tests do you think await Belarusians in 2021?

- There are difficult times in Belarus. And on the New Year, despite the fact that we were celebrating, we mentioned the Belarusians. We constantly think about you and wish to defeat this disgusting dictatorship as soon as possible. I am convinced that this will happen, but you can see for yourself that the situation is dragging on.

What is happening can be characterized by the term "combat draw." On the one hand, Lukashenka has so far managed to hold out with the help of unprecedented and extremely brutal repressions. We have not seen this in Europe since the Yugoslav wars. This is much tougher than what we see in Russia. We know that usually, you are ahead of us, and Putin begins to use all Belarusian techniques after Lukashenka. On the other hand, it is clear that Lukashenka failed to break the Belarusian society's spirit. And although we do not see such large-scale protests as in August and September, on the other hand, we see that society does not accept this power. We see Lukashenka's growing economic difficulties. And we see that he ran under Putin's wing so that he would save him from all these difficulties. Putin also does not want to do the job completely for him. He gave little money. He did not give large-scale help, mainly moral support, and this is definitely not enough.

Lukashenka will not be able to pull this long if the whole country is against him and there are difficulties in the economy and international sanctions. After a while, according to the logic of the development of dictatorial regimes, this will begin to crumble. In this situation, I would like to wish the Belarusians a lot of patience. We'll have to be patient, but it seems to me that this is enough. People show that they are not ready to give up; they cannot be broken, despite the unprecedented violence.

- Is such a negative scenario possible - a completely closed country, a large wave of emigration before that, a ruined economy, salaries of $ 5-10, general terror, such a conditional North Korea in the center of Europe. Is this possible?

- It's hardly possible. Despite all the external political closure of Belarus, this is an economy that is very dependent on relations with the outside world. First of all, Lukashenka's regime draws its finances from the incomes of several large export-oriented enterprises. What will happen to the economic situation? You can forget about investments. We will see very serious capital outflows. For many years they have been discussing whether large Russian businesses will come to Belarus. I am convinced that it will not come in such a situation.

Even all large state-corporate tycoons see how unstable the situation is, they understand that their arrival now, the expansion of investment expansion in Belarus will be perceived negatively by society, as support for Lukashenka. Secondly, it is an investment in a politically unstable regime that is about to collapse. In addition, we see that the outflow of money from banks continues, that advanced industries, owners, and employees of companies continue to leave the country.

This has a significant effect because the upper-middle class is washed out; as a result, the demand for goods and services will fall. This is a funnel into which the economy will inevitably be sucked in if Lukashenka is temporarily held in power. This means that ever-wider sections of the population will become poorer, and dissatisfaction with the situation will spread even to those who today behave relatively neutral. In addition to political discontent and the desire for change and a change of power, Lukashenka will receive a second blow in the form of discontent for purely socio-economic reasons from those strata of the population who were more or less loyal to him. The economy is the key to the development of the situation. For several months we saw that Lukashenka does not have the tools to improve the economic situation and stabilize it.

You need to be patient. Lukashenka thinks that it is possible to jail everyone - and all this will somehow resolve by itself. It won't be that way. It is very important to understand that such regimes, however tough they may be, do not survive in the face of such economic difficulties. And in order to hold on, they need a completely different level of brutality. I am convinced that the North Korean option is not possible here. We have not seen examples of how a second such tough dictatorship could be built in the modern world. This will mean that a new wave of discontent awaits Lukashenka in the coming months. I think that, at some point, this will lead to even larger protests than we saw in the first 2-3 months.

- Let's talk about the role of the Kremlin, about direct and indirect Putin's support, and the threat to the independence of Belarus. What worries you the most about the position of the Russian authorities regarding Lukashenka and Belarus?

- I am worried by the fact that Putin sits in our Kremlin at all. Whatever he touches, it always brings serious problems. For Putin, this magnitude of the protest was completely unexpected. And now, he does not understand how he should be. He feels that it is not necessary to do the job in full for Lukashenka; on the other hand, by inertia, he cannot but help him as an ally-dictator, as a person who is disgusted with popular peaceful democratic revolutions. He is caught between these contradictions. As a result, he gives help in the "one teaspoon per hour" mode.

In six months, we saw only two tranches of Russian loans of $ 500 million each. This is a drop in the ocean. So far, this money was actually used to pay off Belarus' debts to Russia for gas. I think now he decided to wait for Lukashenka to suppress the protests. I think it's naive to wait for this. It will not happen. The protest will continue. Lukashenka is alone in this situation, and here a lot will depend on how the Europeans will act.

If sanctions are announced against the Belarusian economy's pillars, and if they cut off Lukashenka's channel for receiving large export revenues and include major enterprises such as Naftan or Belaruskali on the sanctions lists, this could put Lukashenka in a very difficult position. Much depends not on Putin, but on what Europe will do. Putin, when something happens, always hides. And here, he takes a position of waiting.

- There is a widespread theory that Belarus for Russia is a kind of testing ground for authoritarian technologies, techniques, decisions - changing the Constitution, ways to neutralize the opposition, a referendum. The Russian authorities watch how Lukashenka does it, then they do it in their own country less roughly and taking into account the mistakes they have noticed. If Putin decides to run for president for the fifth time in 2024, he could see the situation in Belarus as a possible scenario for dealing with dissent in Russia. What Lukashenka's mistakes Putin won't want to repeat?

- I think we will have it earlier. I expect a similar development of events around the elections to the State Duma in 2021. It seems to me that this is not a question of their mistakes but a question of their instincts. If they understand that they have already lost the country and cannot return support, they start to react beastly. They want to hinder their fear by intimidating everyone else. There will most likely be a mandate for extremely harsh actions, indicative brutality to intimidate everyone else. Intimidation tactics are adopted in many ways by Putin. When the situation in society reaches a critical point, it does not work, and people continue to resist. And all the same, people watch Navalny on New Year's, you have Tsikhanouskaya, and the addresses of Putin and Lukashenka are all with dislikes.

- What lessons of the Belarusian peaceful protest are important for the Russian democratic opposition?

- We are dealing with a new type of dictatorship. Communist dictatorships 30 years ago were ready to crush limited resistance and dissidents, but they were not ready for the entire population to go out. Now we are dealing with a more advanced and harsher type of dictatorship, which knows that the population is against them and prepare for such events in advance. They are ready to fight against the whole country. We need to be ready for this, not looking for quick recipes, and understand that only patience and endurance are against this.

A dictator cannot exist for long. We are very glad to see that Belarusians understand that this is not a question of several days, weeks, and maybe months. You need to show perseverance, no matter how hard it is. This is a very important lesson for both Russia and the Russian democratic opposition.