Anders Åslund: The Purpose of the Sanctions Is for Lukashenka to Leave and Not to Improve His Behavior

The economist and diplomat explained why the toughest and fast sanctions against the regime are needed.

Swedish economist and diplomat Anders Åslund, together with Polish economist Jan Hagemeyer, prepared for the Warsaw Center for Social and Economic Research a document “EU sanctions against Belarus as an effective policy tool.”

In an interview with Radio Svaboda, Åslund explained why he is in favor of the toughest and fastest possible sanctions.

Åslund's theses:

The growth of the Belarusian economy by about two percent this year, after a one percent decline last year, is virtually stagnant.

Since 2012, we can talk about a complete stagnation of the economy in Belarus. Lukashenka's economic system does not allow economic growth.

Lukashenka - not sanctions - is the main problem for the Belarusian economy. The population will suffer in any case.

Lukashenka is completely dependent on Russia. The more odious he becomes, the more expensive it is for Russia to support him.

It seems that Russia does not really want to seize the territory of Belarus, since they do not want to have many enemies on their territory.

It is necessary to further raise the price of supporting Lukashenka for Russia. I believe that maximum sanctions should be imposed.

Sanctions should not be introduced gradually but as quickly as possible. Their goal is for Lukashenka to leave power, not for him to improve his behavior.

In past years, limited sanctions against Lukashenka had a positive effect, but, a year ago, we saw that Lukashenka had lost all legitimacy, and now the situation is completely different.

Putin began to willingly meet with Lukashenka only in February, when six months after the so-called elections, Lukashenka more or less regained control over the country. For Putin, slow, gradual sanctions are more beneficial.

I do not believe that the level of protests does not depend on the situation in the economy. I lived in Moscow as a Swedish diplomat from 1984 to 1987, and the general idea then was that nothing ever changes here. But, as you know, everything did not happen like that.

The Putin regime will also break down. I cannot say when, but it will probably be later than the Lukashenka regime.

Russia now probably gives Belarus $ 2 billion a year. The gross national product of Belarus is now about 60 billion. Fifteen years ago, Russia gave annually about 6 billion, which is 10 percent of the GNP.

For comparison, Russia gives Crimea $ 5 billion annually from the federal budget and Donbas $ 4 billion.

The standard of living in Russia is declining - over the past seven years, this level has decreased by 11 percent. If we talk about Russia's support for Lukashenka, then the question is to what extent Putin is ready to ruin the life of his citizens.

Sanctions should have been introduced faster, but I am surprised that European sanctions are tougher than American ones and that they were introduced earlier. I was amazed at the sectoral sanctions and sanctions against Lukashenka's criminal friends that the European Union introduced in June.

I especially liked that they introduced sanctions against Mikhail Gutseriev, the main Russian oligarch operating in Belarus. It is also worth imposing sanctions on people like Dmitry Mazepin and German Gref, as they pour Russian state money into Belarus.

I live in Washington and I see that the Americans believe that Belarus is, first of all, a European problem. They expect Europe to act first.

I think that sanctions will intensify because Lukashenka does nothing good - only repression.

In response to the migration crisis, it is possible to impose sanctions against airlines transporting migrants to Belarus.

First of all, it is necessary to impose sanctions against the financial sector - against state-owned banks in Belarus, since they work for state-owned companies controlled by Lukashenka. But also against Russian state banks in Belarus.

If we introduce large-scale sanctions in one package, I would name three main points:

Criminal friends of Lukashenka and his family. We need to track their money, which is probably in Dubai.

State finances of Belarus.

The state finances of Russia, connected with Belarus, and those oligarchs who are trying to buy Belarusian enterprises for Russian state money.