Opinion: Lukashenka's Special Operation Went Wrong At Beginning Of Second Phase

The Polish ultimatum put the Belarusian authorities in a difficult dilemma.

It looks like the buy goat / sell goat operation went wrong at the very beginning of the second phase. I mean, there were no people willing to buy a goat for the price that the Belarusian authorities wanted for it. And they want it dear, although they themselves have no benefit other than harm from it, writes the Letters to Daughter Telegram channel.

The Belarusian authorities had a very indirect relationship with the return to Iraq of the first batch of 374 migrants, although they tried their best to write it down in their favor. The entire evacuation from beginning to end was organized by the Iraqi authorities. On the other hand, the Belarusian authorities could interfere. For example, closing an airport to an evacuation plane. But they didn't. This, apparently, is the active assistance that they boasted to the European Union yesterday.

However, as it goes further, the case does not promise to be simple. Because when two people spoke on the phone, they seemed to have very different conversations. Perhaps due to translation difficulties. And the Belarusian authorities believe that they promised to divide the migrants with them in a brotherly way: take two thousand for themselves, and send five thousand home. And the German authorities are sure that they did not promise anything to anyone. And, you must admit, it is not easy to portray the victorious introduction of migrants into Europe when you send them home.

And even worse is the Polish ultimatum that they will close the road for trains in Kuznica if the Belarusian authorities do not put things in order at the border with an offensive execution time of three days. And this ultimatum put the Belarusian authorities in front of a difficult dilemma of almost geopolitical scale. One might even say - before an existential choice. If you answer the ultimatum in the usual way, that is, with the spontaneous indignation of the migrant masses against the Polish military, then all agreements with Merkel, whatever they may be, will be somewhat ... disavowed. And many may decide that, in principle, there is no point in talking with the Belarusian authorities. And the Poles will also block the railroad.

And if someone was going to quietly establish order at the border on his own, without any ultimatums, now he found himself in a very delicate position. You start to put things in order, and everyone will think that someone is a weakling who was afraid of the ultimatum. And, first of all, it's humiliating. And secondly, geopolitically it is unsafe. The same Poles will then teach everyone how to speak correctly. Akela can't miss. Otherwise they will eat him. And even if there are no daredevils left among their wolves, then a lame tiger can hobble from the side.

So he gave up the slack in the case with migrants, and already yesterday Putin fiddled with negotiations with the opposition. And no matter how you reassure yourself that he meant only round, constructive oppositionists, it still sounds not brotherly. If that’s what he meant, he could have said it out straightforwardly. And since he didn’t say it, it turns out that he left room for dubious interpretations and bad doubts.