Three Factors That Will Lead to the Overthrow of Lukashenka

Irreversible processes started.

The economic problems in Belarus are undermining the stability of the regime, and the blow is going in three directions, political scientist Vadzim Mazheika writes in an article for the website "Our Opinion."

Limited resources for security officials

At the expert-analytical club, economists noted that spending on security officials would be the last to be cut, and Vadzim Iasub even recalled the joke: "Dad, will you drink less? No, son, you will eat less." However, expenses are already being cut: the former investigator and founder of the BYPOL initiative, Andrei Astapovich, said that the construction of housing was postponed for the Investigative Committee. However, this may be due to the fact that, according to the same Astapovich, during the analysis of signatures for alternative candidates, the KGB "were horrified at the percent realizing that this [Investigative Committee] is the most oppositional power structure."

However, the disappearance of the prospect of getting a service apartment is unlikely to motivate any of the security officials to love Lukashenka's state system more. From the same series is the obvious desire of the authorities to show that they do not have irreplaceable ones, even in the most difficult times: both Interior Minister Yury Karaeu and KGB head Valery Vakulchyk lost their posts in 2020. Such a policy may be effective in preventing the emergence of dangerously influential generals, but it does not contribute to the security officials' confidence in their future under the current government.

The law enforcement agencies regularly receive leakages that are sensitive to the authorities. And it's not just about the "most oppositional" Investigative Committee. You can recall the audio recording, where a voice similar to Mikalai Karpiankou, the current Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs - the commander of the internal troops, speaks about the death of Aliaksandr Taraikouskiy and about the "camps for sharp-hoofed." Judging by the content of the audio recording, it was made in October 2020, when Karpiankou was still in charge of the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption (GUBOPiK) and spoke with his subordinates. The actions of these security officials at the demonstrations made such an impression on the public that the petition to recognize the GUBOPiK as a terrorist organization collected more than 60,000 signatures. And now it turns out that one of them secretly recorded the boss's voice and sent BYPOL. So the unity of the siloviki is far from being as strong as it might seem.

Hunger Riots: Forward into the Past

Another potential consequence of the economic crisis is the protests of angry people whose financial situation has deteriorated critically, and they blame the authorities for this. Belarus already saw this in 2017, when the notorious "tax on parasitism" brought tens of thousands of people to the streets across the country. Then the protests eventually managed to be extinguished - but not due to unprecedented violence, as in 2020, but due to economic relaxation. In fact, the authorities made concessions to the protesters: the parasitic decree was significantly revised, and the direct collection of 20 basic units from the unemployed was canceled.

However, in 2017, the position of the authorities was much stronger: in foreign policy, a warming with the West was strengthening, diversification flourished, and the main demands of the protesters did not affect the political foundations of the regime. Now relations with the EU and the US are in a worse state than ever, and the protesters have encroached on two pillars of Lukashenka's power: electoral fraud and unlawful permissiveness of the security forces.

In a sense, the 2020 campaign was a logical continuation of the "parasites'" protests. It was there that the phenomenon of popular video bloggers was born - the same outraged residents of the regions, ordinary people who speak in simple language. Many of them are now behind bars, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski. But these are not figures with a lengthy background, like the same Viktar Babaryka: popular video bloggers grow like mushrooms after rain, and with any social explosion, new popular persons will immediately appear.

New outbursts of protest by the former electorate of Lukashenka - not very rich and not very educated, living in impoverished regions - will be inevitable when the economic crisis grows.

Court business: from sanctions to default

Another consequence of the national economy's problems is the shrinking of the pie, which can be shared with the close business. The less budgetary funds are, the fewer government contracts are that, in principle, can be obtained.

On the contrary, proximity to the state becomes toxic and threatens. In particular, this applies to European sanctions, the third package of which includes both legal entities and personally businessmen. So far, the list is small - also because some lobbyists of the Belarusian business in the EU have made appropriate efforts (this, in particular, was confirmed by the owner of Santa Bremor Aliaksandr Mashenski). The very fact of such activity confirms that EU sanctions for business are much more sensitive than they are trying to present in Belarus.

"Collecting watermelons has nothing to do with business," this is how the person involved in the third package of EU sanctions, Aliaksandr Shakutin, argued that he had no business ties with Lukashenka, although they collected watermelons together at the presidential site. However, the fact is that closeness with Lukashenka has already negatively affected his business - regardless of whether it is considered fair or not. And with the strengthening of such sanctions, big business, previously loyal to Lukashenka, will think twice about what losses another watermelon might cost it.

And strategically, businesses will find it increasingly difficult to link their prospects with the Lukashenka model. The time may come when a default will loom in the future, which is inevitable without political changes. And in the post-Soviet space, they remember how the Russian default of 1998 ended for many entrepreneurs. And then, businesses will be vitally interested in ending the political crisis in Belarus, unblocking cooperation with the West, which, among other things, gives access to programs to support the economy and loans at a moderate interest rate.

Difficult at first - nice later

The economic crisis is not a good thing for the country, but you can also benefit from it.

After the collapse of the USSR, the first governments of independent countries were faced with the need to clean up their predecessors' economic rubble. The inevitable difficulties were according to their ratings and gave rise to nostalgia for times, albeit not free, but more well-fed. This could have happened in Belarus, but Lukashenka missed the moment to leave on time, at the peak of his prosperity. Now he has to reap the fruits of the collapse of the system he built and be responsible for this with his rating.

In this sense, a hypothetical default is not only a disaster but also a release from the burden of debts accumulated by Lukashenka's system. And the reformers from the new government will start, if not from a clean slate, then from a situation where there is nowhere much worse, and any development is perceived well. The crisis of the decline of the Lukashenka model will become a low base for future growth.