Regime’s Actions Will Make EU Act More Radically

The attitude of the West towards the dictatorship in Belarus may begin to change in qualitative terms.

The special operation to capture Raman Pratasevich is, of course, a landmark event that will have long-term consequences for the Lukashenka regime in the international arena. Politicians and diplomats of the European Union virtually unanimously call the incident an act of state terrorism. In the UK, there is talk of an attack on democracy and freedom around the world. NATO Secretary General declares the need for an international investigation of the incident. To be honest, I don’t remember that the West has ever used such harsh rhetoric against the official Minsk.

Of course, today's events will push the EU to adopt a more radical version of the fourth sanctions package. However, in the current situation, this is by no means the main thing. It is much more important that the attitude of the West towards the dictatorship in Belarus can begin to change in qualitative terms. Previously, Lukashenka was an exclusively ethical problem for the West. Yes, it is not good when there are political prisoners on the European continent, when human rights are violated and elections are rigged. Yes, this is contrary to European values, but it does not directly affect the interests of European citizens. Now Lukashenka is becoming a security problem. And this is a completely different level of priority.

At the same time, it should be understood that the action against the Ryanair aircraft is not an accident or an improvisation of the special services. This is part of the general strategy of terror that Lukashenka has staked on. Let us recall the statement by the head of the KGB, Ivan Tsiartsel, who promised to pursue “traitors” and “renegades” wherever they were. Let us recall the promises of the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Mikalai Karpiankou to “find and mop-up” dissidents. At the same time, Tsiartsel cited as an example the actions of his “predecessors” (that is, the foreign operations of the OGPU-NKVD-MSS), Karpiankou - the actions of the American special services in relation to Al-Qaeda. If the West has not yet understood this declaration of intent, then this is the first serious call to them. The unprecedented terror that has swept the country over the past 9 months has already become cramped within the borders of Belarus.

All this is a wonderful proof of the common truth that in conditions of impunity, violence only grows and spreads, crossing any conceivable framework. If the response to the current incident turns out to be insufficiently convincing, then the West will need to prepare further for the murders and abductions of the opponents of the dictatorship on the streets of European cities. Moreover, the representatives of the regime are talking about this in fact point-blank. Judging by the reaction of Western politicians in the first hours of this scandal, they are still beginning to grasp a similar pattern.

And the last thing. The recent actions of the regime are completely insane. Moreover, the madness is not even from the point of view of a civilized democratic state (this has long been out of the question), but from the point of view of the interests of the dictatorship itself. Yes, the massacre against TUT.by or the capture of Pratasevich was a logical continuation of the course of unlimited terror and intimidation of the society. But the conduct of such operations just now, on the eve of the consideration of the fourth package of sanctions, was not reasonable in any way. If Lukashenka of the 2020-2021 model was a politician, he would pause the repression, wait for the adoption of the light version of the sanctions package, and then continue the mop-up operation, gaining time. But Lukashenka today is not a politician, but the head of a militant organization. And now he is guided not by political considerations, but solely by considerations of military expediency. If there is a possibility to strike, he strikes. And he is not interested in the political consequences.

Ihar Illyash, Telegram