Natallia Radzina: Putin And Lukashenka Regimes Are In Their Last Months

The dictators have painted themselves into a corner.

Why was it necessary to create a joint Russian-Belarusian military regional group? Are the Belarusian military ready to fight? What are the liberation scenarios for Belarus?

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-In-Chief of Charter97.org, spoke about this in an interview with the UKRLIFE.TV YouTube channel. Hosted by Liudmyla Nemiria.

— Natallia, the topic, unfortunately, is not very optimistic. Before I start talking about what is happening in Belarus, I want to recall what you also wrote about: the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment is fighting in Ukraine, this is very important and symbolic for us. This is the support of the Belarusian people. I have repeatedly read Belarusian sociology, which says that ordinary Belarusians do not support the war between Belarus and Ukraine and, in general, entry into the war that Russia has launched.

However, we see that Lukashenka's actions are somewhat different from expectations. The first impression was that the dictator, who brutally suppressed the protest, suddenly, for some reason, cared about the opinion of the Belarusian people. But you spoke about this in advance, I paid attention, because I've been reading your posts and articles all the time. This was very interesting for me. You said that the Belarusian army joining the war is only a matter of time. We see now a lot of all sorts of preparations, which you probably know better than me.

Well, let's talk a little if you're ready. What is happening in Belarus? Do you still think that the Belarusian army joining the war is only a matter of time?

— Yes, I'm sure. And this is evidenced by all the actions of the Belarusian authorities, and everything that happens in Belarus. Counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared in the country and hidden mobilization has begun. So far, this has not been publicly announced, but nevertheless, the servicemen have already been banned from leaving the country, conscripts are being persuaded to switch to a contract, and young guys are being mobilized from villages, from small towns, so keep it calm.

We see that the heads of law enforcement agencies, including the head of the Security Council Aliaksandr Volfavich, visit the largest Belarusian enterprises. Obviously, preparations are beginning for the deployment of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus, which has already begun within the framework of the announced joint regional military group.

Of course, first of all, we see the diversion of the Ukrainian military in order to force them to redeploy to the borders with Belarus by transferring troops from the southeast. But I think it's a matter of one or two months, when the Russian and Belarusian armies can enter Ukraine from the north.

— Natallia, let's talk about the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus. There are many discussions regarding the possible number of Russian troops. Some say about 20,000 and up to 150,000. In any case, any number of Russian troops, 60,000 - 70,000, is an occupation in fact.

In any case, Putin can do anything to Belarus with so many Russian troops. I don't know if the opposition forces in Belarus are fully aware of this, as well as the forces that were forced to leave the country, including those inside the country, and Lukashenka personally.

— If we are talking about Lukashenka, then today he is not able to do anything and resist this scenario. He painted himself into a corner and fell into complete dependence on the Russian regime. Of course, this did not happen yesterday or even on February 24, 2022, when Lukashenka, together with Putin, launched a war against Ukraine.

Throughout the existence of his regime (it has existed since 1994, for 28 years already), Lukashenka has drawn Belarus into an ever closer union with Russia. And today, of course, Belarus is not an independent country in the military-political sense. The deployment of tens of thousands of Russian troops can already be called the occupation of the country.

— Many write and say that Lukashenka's ministers try to build some kind of bridge with the West promising something from time to time. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, we know that China has concluded an agreement on “all-weather cooperation” with Belarus, a pretty deep one. And at some point, there was an impression that this would help Lukashenka to balance the influence of Russia, it could be both financial and political influence. What are your assessments of these steps? Could it be too late to talk about anything and the game is over for Lukashenka?

— Lukashenka really managed to manoeuvre and cooperate with the West until 2020. He had extensive trade relations with Ukraine, including certain agreements on the transit of goods from China and through Belarus.

All this happened, but in 2020 the whole world saw what was happening in Belarus, when Lukashenka stayed in power only thanks to the Kremlin and through monstrous repressions against people.

In general, all contacts with the West have ceased. It's a pity that Ukraine did not join the Western sanctions until 2022 and kept buying Belarusian oil products and potassium till the start of the war. This also helped to strengthen the dictatorship, in fact, it's true that can't be hidden.

In the current conditions of the war, taking into account the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus, in the conditions of constant shelling of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, all agreements with China do not work. Belarus is not a safe transit country and, accordingly, in this situation, any cooperation is almost impossible.

All trade and economic relations have been terminated with Ukraine, of course, and the West is not bought into any persuasion by Lukashenka. We saw that his officials made attempts, and knocked on different doors at the New York UN session. They tried to negotiate travelling to the West. However, no one believes these liars today.

There was even an attempt to sell "amnesty for political prisoners", but we saw that it does not really apply to people who are in prison today on political grounds. This applies more to those detained on criminal charges that are not related to politics. Therefore, it is clear to everyone that this regime is unable to reform, that this regime is completely dependent on Russia today and under Russian control.

— Natallia, let's imagine for a moment that Lukashenka will make a decision, although the impression is that he is trying to somehow manoeuvre to the last and not directly bring in Belarusian troops. However, if this happens suddenly, what are the possible scenarios for Lukashenka? What scenarios are possible for Belarus? Ukrainian military experts have repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not allow going as deep as it was before, that is, they will begin to shell the Belarusian territory.

This is also a very important moment for Belarusians. We remember pretty well this heroic protest, which no one expected, and we remember with what cruelty it was suppressed, and therefore now, it is not clear to us in Kyiv whether the Belarusians are ready to start any protests again, whether they are ready to somehow stop this or it's not possible any more while the Russian army is there. Do the Belarusians have any chance not to be completely occupied by Russia?

— Let's look at the situation reasonably. It's unrealistic to protest in Belarus today. Neither I, nor other leaders of the Belarusian opposition can take the responsibility of calling on people to take to the streets today when they can simply be imprisoned for 10-20 years, and Belarusians today have exactly such terms. Any activity from taking to the street and any protest to just solidarity with Ukraine is punished in this way.

Also, they are ready to use weapons against people, the law has already enshrined the right of police officers to use guns against demonstrators. You see, this is really impossible taking into account the Russian troops deployed in Belarus today. Although I am convinced that protests in Belarus will resume sooner or later, because the situation resembles such a boiling cauldron: life is getting worse, hatred of Lukashenka has not disappeared anywhere since 2020 when millions protested against him.

The economic situation today is deplorable. There are also economic sanctions imposed by the West. The rise in prices is monstrous, many products have rapidly risen in price by 2.5-3 times, while wages are falling, and layoffs are taking place at enterprises. The situation is quite difficult.

And now, Russia has deployed its troops in Belarus. We remember what was happening in the occupied territories of Ukraine, and we can imagine what will happen in Belarus when Russian troops are deployed in many Belarusian settlements. Actually, they will be everywhere if there are so many of them.

For example, I already receive information from people that in the Brest region they are rebuilding barracks and schools in the villages, as well as former pioneer camps. This also destabilizes the situation.

If the Belarusian army also enters the war, I am convinced that this will be the end for Lukashenka. I am convinced that many will surrender, that they will simply scatter. Many will join the Kalinouski Regiment to fight and defend Ukraine. I believe that people in the country will be extremely outraged when thousands of coffins begin to arrive in Belarus.

But let's be reasonable: it's still a matter of time. As for the response of Ukraine - if the massive shelling of Ukrainian territory from the territory of Belarus continues and if the Belarusian army enters, then I can truthfully say: Ukraine has the full right to retaliate against military facilities in Belarus. There can be no doubt about this.

I talk to people in Belarus and there is an understanding that Ukraine has the right to do so. Yes, Belarusians oppose this war. Yes, no one supports either the Lukashenka regime or his junta, and they realize that there is a collective responsibility. The situation is that you have the right to hit military targets, and no matter that I'm actually really struggling with talking about this because this is my country.

— Natallia, you just said a very important thing: "this will be the end for Lukashenka." It seems to us, those who are in Kyiv, that the end for Lukashenka should come if someone, for example, a Belarusian opposition leader, replaces him. At least, that was the impression.

There is another option, which is quite possible. This is the option in which the end of Lukashenka will mean that Russia comes to Belarus, introduces its occupying troops, occupational authority, and so on. Do you see another option for the end of Lukashenka?

This is a very important point. Is it possible and to what extent does the Belarusian opposition being in exile and in prisons somehow influence the situation in the country?

— I read an article at Dzerkalo Tyzhnia news, a Ukrainian publication, that a coup is possible in Belarus. Indeed, this is possible. Many officials are dissatisfied with Lukashenka himself, including the national security, defence and law enforcement agencies.

However, we must be aware that they are dependent on Russia, especially the security services. Should Putin change Lukashenka now? Not sure if he needs it right now. Such scenarios are possible, given that Lukashenka is not very good at negotiating, he is constantly trying to outwit everyone, and it is simply impossible to take his word for it.

Of course, this will not bring democracy to Belarus, but we now live in completely different conditions. There is a war, everything changes every day. I am convinced that the Putin regime will be defeated in this war.

I have never considered the scenario that he will win. No matter what Putin tries to do, no matter what mobilization he announces, and no matter how he threatens to use nuclear weapons, this regime will lose.

Let's put it this way, I think that the Russian and Belarusian regimes are in their last months. Whatever scenarios Russia builds in Belarus, they will collapse along with the Putin regime.

As for the democratic forces of Belarus, of course, the real leaders of Belarus are in prison today, the real leader of Belarus is fighting in Ukraine today. I am talking about the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, we've begun with it. Recently, a wonderful article by the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Bohdan Yaremenko was published by the Ukrainska Pravda. He said that Ukraine should still develop a strategy against Belarus and rely this strategy on the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment since it proves its commitment to both democratic values and patriotism in the fight against Russian occupiers and defence of Ukraine from the Russian occupiers.

— Natallia, I agree with you with great pleasure. It also seems to me that both the Putin and Lukashenka regimes are living out some of their last months. But I would like to know, why do you think so? What are the reasons for your expectations? Do you just think so or are there some reasons?

— I mainly rely on facts. Today they declared war not only on Ukraine. They declared war on the whole world, and in this situation, Putin and Lukashenka are simply not able to survive, they simply do not have enough strength and resources. I am convinced that these two dictators will lose. Of course, today it is necessary to provide even greater support to Ukraine in this war.

Your army is, of course, an example of courage, we admire you and try to help in any way we can. Today it is necessary to help Ukraine more, it is necessary to strengthen sanctions against the regimes of Putin and Lukashenka.

The world is in solidarity with Ukraine and will continue to help. Therefore, dictators have no chance. Moreover, knowing the internal situation in Russia, knowing the internal situation in Belarus, realizing that the regime does not enjoy any popularity among Belarusians, it tries to stay in power exclusively by force. But the same resources of the repressive apparatus are now being depleted every day.

— We talked little about the Belarusian military. You also remembered that they are still focused on Russia. Many studied there, served, and started their military career.

I don’t know how strong these relations are, because, you know, I remember when it all started in 2014, many militaries who served in Crimea at that time said that “we couldn’t understand how we could shoot at those who lived with us on the same training ground". It felt like that then, but things have changed now.

I don’t know if the Belarusian militaries are able to say at some point that “no, it’s still Belarus, not Russia”.

— If we are talking about the top of the power bloc, then, of course, they are absolutely dependent on Russia. If we are talking about the top of the national security, defence and law enforcement agencies, then, of course, they are absolutely dependent on Russia. If we are talking about the KGB leadership, then it is clear that it is more subordinate to the FSB. Therefore, yes, these agencies and the command of the Belarusian army, are more subordinate to the Kremlin than even to Lukashenka today.

If we are talking about ordinary military personnel, even officers, then most of them do not want to fight in Ukraine at all. Belarusians do not have this sick imperial syndrome, they do not understand why they should die for some kind of the “Great Russia”. We don't belong to it.

I communicate with Belarusian servicemen, I am the daughter of a retired serviceman and, of course, I know the sentiments. Nobody wants to go to Ukraine and die there for Putin. Nobody wants to shoot and kill Ukrainians, who have always been a brotherly people for us.

A lot of Belarusians had vocations in Ukraine, loved Crimea before it became occupied by Russia, travelled to Odesa, Lviv and Kyiv. A huge number of Belarusians, even during the war, since 2014, went to the Ukrainian markets, because they saw that Ukraine is developing despite the war, that you have incomparably greater freedom. We have always loved Ukraine.

I am convinced that in fact the Belarusian army will not save Putin in this situation, will not be a support for his regime, and will not provide him with significant assistance in this war.

— Natallia, I have one more difficult question, I suppose. This question is connected with the fact that a special attitude has developed towards Lukashenka and his entourage in Ukraine. And to his actions. There is a special attitude towards the Belarusian people. There is a question of how to avoid this tragedy of the entry of the Belarusian people into the war. There are probably few options in this sense.

Well, as for you personally. Have you ever thought about an option when the Lukashenka regime and the West are coming to an agreement? Sure, it sounds cynical, like "realpolitik", I know, but still. But are there other options?

— I think that no one can come to an agreement with Lukashenka. Lukashenka does not fulfil any agreements. He also assured that he would not attack Ukraine. Recall your authorities. They explicitly stated: “How did it happen? Lukashenka promised us. It was like a stab in the back."

To be honest, it was funny to hear it. After all, we warned the Ukrainian authorities, me personally, other opposition leaders came to Ukraine starting in 2014 and explained that a blow would definitely be struck from the territory of Belarus. We were asking for their support of the Belarusian opposition in this situation, for help in implementation of changes, the changes in Belarus. We asked for support and solidarity. Because if the dictatorial regime remains in Belarus and if Putin decides to advance further, Belarus will certainly be used as a base for an attack on Ukraine. Nobody wanted to hear us then, everyone thought it was unrealistic.

I kept hearing the phrase: “Lukashenka promised us that he would not attack.” But in the end, on February 24, 2022, everyone saw what his promises were worth. Therefore, today all these negotiations with Lukashenka are meaningless even from the West, because he will not fulfil them anyway. You need to understand that even if he wants to fulfil them, then he won't survive long, the Kremlin is watching him closely.

— You have already mentioned that at one time, many did not support the protests that were in Belarus. What an evil irony of fate, who could have guessed how the events would unfold, even the West, it could then provide real support, but it did not. Do you think that some kind of strategy, some kind of vision of the West has already been formed today? What to do next? While the war is going on, everything is very lively and hot. But speaking about wars, we hope, tend to end. And in this sense, what do you think is next?

— It seems to me that now we need to listen to Bohdan Yaremenko, I mentioned him today, a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada. We need to think over a real strategy for Belarus. Because, to be honest, I can hardly imagine any other scenarios for changing the situation in Belarus except the liberation operation.

— Are you talking about a military operation?

— There is a war. How else to act in this situation? THere is nothing about revolution or some kind of protests in Belarus? No, it's not possible yet.

I admit the scenario that if Belarusian volunteers enter Belarus with the support of Ukrainians, then the entire Belarusian people will support them. Do you know that Belarusian volunteers joke that when they enter Belarus, they will go to Minsk for three days? Do you know why? Because they will stop in every village and villagers will welcome and support them.

Therefore, all support from the Belarusian people in this situation will be provided, because they are waiting for liberty. I hear it all the time, I read about it all the time on social media. So let's think. Of course, I am not a military expert, I cannot advise anything to either the Ukrainian military, or even the military of the NATO countries.

But, it seems to me that this is a real scenario, given that there are a sufficient number of Belarusian men who are fighting in Ukraine, who are ready to go to Ukraine today. The number of volunteers who want to defend Ukraine today is growing. Therefore, we need to think about how to work with these people. Maybe they should not die near Kherson? Maybe they should concentrate on Belarus? This can significantly help Ukraine.

If we take Belarus, this convenient Putin's base, it seems to me that this will be a real turning point in the war. This will hasten his defeat and the downfall of the Putin regime in Russia.

— I really like this story about three days, but does Lukashenka have popular support? Does the Belarusian society support him? Many said that the protests are in the cities, but the villages are for Lukashenka mostly. How does it look today? Has anyone rated it? I understand that it is very difficult to make polls. I understand that sociology in these conditions can't be completely sincere in common as well as many other things, but what kind of support can he have?

— The absolute majority of Belarusians are against Lukashenka. We can speak about 80-85%. I do not believe in any opinion polls, where some decent numbers of support for Lukashenka are called. It is necessary to understand that in a situation of terror which occurs today in the country, nobody honestly will answer questions, concerning support of the power. Therefore you must not trust such polls. And let's face it. I communicate with a large number of people, monitor all social media and I do not see real Lukashenka's supporters at all. Yes, there is a certain percentage, but mostly they are representatives of the authorities and the special services. That is the regime and its servants.

— Is there great support for the democratic opposition among Belarusians? Who will replace Lukashenka if he leaves? Is it clear or is it still a difficult question?

— Certainly, there will be free elections and the people will decide who will govern the country. However, the real leaders of the Belarusian opposition are in prison today. It is necessary, of course, to seek their release. I am sure that these people can and have the right to govern the country.

Probably, some kind of coalition government for the transitional period should be created at the initial stage, and then new free parliamentary and presidential elections should be announced. Well, we have enough heroes and we have some people to lead the country. I can name our Nobel Prize laureate, Ales Bialiatski. I can name Mikalai Statkevich, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, who spent more than 10 years in prisons under Lukashenka's regime. There are a lot of such people in Belarus who really deserve to become the president of our country.

— Natallia, thank you so much! Thank you very much for being with us today. We really appreciate that.

– Thank you.