Dzmitry Bandarenka: There Are Three Persons Who Can Now Become Belarusian Presidents

The situation in Belarus will dramatically change within a year.

Dzmitry Bandarenka, the coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, gave an interview with the Studio X97 show. He spoke about possible scenarios for the situation in Belarus and Ukraine, suggested who could eliminate the usurper Lukashenka, and named three candidates for the presidency of Belarus for whom he would not be ashamed. Host — Yevhen Klimakin.

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— The hero of today's Studio X97 show: Dzmitry Bandarenka, the coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign. Dzmitry, for some, the question is: will Lukashenka officially order Belarusian troops to enter Ukraine or not? Some people believe that this is not a question at all, it is only a matter of time. Because the Belarusian dictator is so controlled by Putin and by the Russian regime, that he does not decide anything on his own. What do you think about this?

— I think that it is not a question whether Lukashenka will make the decision, because he will not make the decision. If we take into account the threats to Ukraine, then a new invasion with a huge degree of probability will be from the territory of Belarus, but it will be Russian troops.

For example, I am fond of Viktor Suvorov's novels. He made me look at the history of the Second World War in a different way. His first novel, "Icebreaker", and the second "M-Day", and he says that war is always mobilization. First goes covert mobilization, then obvious, but the mobilization potential of Russia is undoubtedly greater.

— They have a lot of people. The women will give birth to new ones.

— Their starting positions differ from others. 140 million against 9 million Belarusians. Therefore, even if Belarus wanted to mobilize, these are completely different figures. Russia, I think, will be able to mobilize 2-3 million people within a year. There is an opinion that they have no military equipment but they will produce it, unfortunately. Therefore, the Belarusian troops will play a supporting role and it does not matter at all whether they cross the border or not.

— Why does Lukashenka need this covert mobilization now?

— Putin presses on him. Lukashenka is now economically completely dependent on Russian money, so he no longer has any room for maneuver and therefore he is following orders from Moscow. But, knowing the real state of affairs, the sentiments of the Belarusian people, and the sentiments in the army, he understands that this can lead to sad consequences and he can be “accidentally” killed either by the rebellious Belarusians or the Putinists. And he found himself in a situation not just of some kind of trade, but already of survival today. Every alley is a dead end for him now.

— Dzmitry, I would like our show to be not so much of a military-political nature, but to have some specific and understandable things. In your opinion, if we talk about this specific sphere, what exactly can Belarusians do now and should do in the war situation?

— People who are patriots of Belarus must understand that the war has come to our land. Since February 24, Belarus has actually been in a different situation. And if Ukrainian patriots and Ukrainian authorities defend the independence of their country, and if we believe that we have our own homeland, we have our own state, then we must think, first of all, how to defend it. And there is no doubt that the fate of Belarus is largely decided in Ukraine.

For the most patriotic citizens of Belarus, of course, I would say that we need to help Ukraine, and in a variety of ways, including by joining the ranks of the main Belarusian unit that fights as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Kalinouski Regiment. Today we are talking about the fact that the regiment first turned into a full-rate brigade, and maybe even more. This includes both: military support for Ukraine and preparations for the liberation of Belarus.

I would advise people of military age to run away, and leave Belarus in any possible way. By the way, it was interesting that friends from the Kalinouski Regiment told me that they had the last volunteers who came from Belarus, because their "family meeting" decided: “Guys, we do not want you to serve in the Belarusian occupying army and fight on the side of Russia. Leave and join the Kalinouski Regiment."

We need to help in every way. To help Ukraine. To help each other. And be ready to return to Belarus. Because the situation is changing very quickly. I thought in the summer that the situation had stabilized for a long time, that there would be a long-term war, and now - the incredible successes of the Ukrainian army, they are changing the situation very quickly. Large areas have been liberated. Actually, if a card appears that Ukraine will liberate Kherson, then the situation will be completely different. Maybe we will have to return to Belarus from different directions: from Ukraine, from Poland, from Lithuania, from Latvia. I mean tens, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians who left.

— You remembered the Kalinovites. What do you think about the idea that Servant of the People, Zelensky's political party, has been discussed in recent days? We all see that they are distancing themselves from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia, they do not want any negotiations. But there were ideas to create some kind of political superstructure on the basis of the Kalinouski Regiment, which would be the voice of a free Belarus, and to have a possibility to negotiate and build the future.

— I have long said that Belarusians need to unite around two forces and symbols: people who are in prisons, who started the revolution. And you can’t say: they are in prisons, what can be done. We know that Nelson Mandela was in prison, but he was a huge factor in politics, Václav Havel was in prison for a long time. Many leaders of the Polish Solidarity were in prison, and demands for their release and sanctions from the West changed the situation in Poland.

— In another way, we can say: who was not imprisoned among those who had real weight?

— Correct. The leaders were in prison and it was the "golden fund" of the future Polish national elite.

The second force is, of course, the Kalinouski Regiment, because it is headed by people who still participated in the struggle of Ukraine for their independence not only since 2014, but many came to Ukraine for the first Maidan and also proved that they are brave people. I have much more confidence in these guys, men, and heroes from the Kalinouski Regiment than in these strange personalities who have gathered around Tsikhanouskaya.

Especially, imagine, my comrades are in prisons, I myself was in prison and was in the Resistance for many years, and today they tell me that this woman who loves to travel should be your leader, you should obey her. And she appointed this forceful "transitional government", where one - a former Gestapo man, worked for 10 years for the GUBOPiK [the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the Republic of Belarus, the security forces suppressing protests], I'm talking about Azarau. He did not repent and did not ask for forgiveness from the Belarusians. This is our new "leader"! And Latushka, the "leader", who was an official for 26 years then changed the side, and now is boasting. The rest of the characters are also completely incomprehensible. We are told that they are the "leaders".

No, today people are proving with arms that they are consistent in their principles and that they are ready to take risks. I know that volunteers are fighting in the ranks of the Kalinouski Regiment. Such a system: if a person is not ready for some reason, then one will not be sent to the front line. They are volunteers, and they understand that they need to help Ukraine survive and then liberate Belarus. And there are enough people who have political experience, several people were members of the Zubr Movement. There are representatives of various units from Mikola Statkevich's People's Assembly political party, there are people from the Belarusian Popular Front, there are convinced anarchists, that is, people of ideas, there are people from the Krai organization, which was a military-sports-patriotic organization in the early 2000s.

I think we can trust them. They also need to think not only about creating a military force today, but about the fact that millions of Belarusians hope for them, they must turn to the citizens of Belarus with specific ideas and, I think, they will be heard.

— You've just mentioned Mikola Statkevich. Is there a chance to release political prisoners in the near future?

— The fate of the Lukashenka regime will be decided within a year at most if there is no nuclear war, this is on the one hand. On the other hand, you have seen that the West is taking comprehensive sanctions against Russia, but the latest packages of sanctions have not been applied against the Belarusian regime. For me it's a mystery. I am sure that such sanctions will be applied that will require the release of political prisoners, and even Russia will approve of this. Because it is not able to compensate for the huge losses that the Lukashenka regime is already suffering. It's because of the sanctions, and because he became an enemy of Ukraine, on which he made money for a long time. These ties have been interrupted and this is a huge damage to the Belarusian economy.

Therefore, the West can do something that will lead to the fact that some of the political prisoners will be released. I do not even rule out such a situation that Lukashenka, in order to save his life because of the threat in Russia, can go for the release of political prisoners and even the wildest alliances. Well, or people from his inner circle, if Lukashenka dies. Because the situation in Belarus is changing rapidly. Their measures of a military mobilization plan are simply an attempt to hide their fear. It will not work to hide, it is clearly visible. They can try to disguise it in some way, to take some actions. But each of their steps is a real zugzwang, and it becomes more and more terrible for the Belarusian authorities and the Belarusian dictator.

— I've noticed you are wearing a Zubr T-shirt. Is it a pity that the organization no longer exists?

— I know that it lives in the souls of people, and many of its leaders and activists still play a role in the fate of Belarus today. Eight Zubr members are fighting in Ukraine today. In general, this Zubr logo [Bison - Ed.] is so strong and beautiful: if I choose between a stork and a bison, I always choose a bison. Yes, it was a time to be proud of and one of the best projects of my life. I am very glad that many worthy people went through the Zubr and established themselves later in life.

— The regime declared a regime of counter-terrorist operation. What could be the consequences in the future?

— This is a manifestation of the fear of Lukashenka and those in power in Belarus, on the one hand. On the other hand, this step should not be underestimated, because we know that Putin calls his aggression some kind of "special operation". This is a significant change in the life of Belarusians, at least.

— Not so long ago, Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, said that the uprising of Chechens in Russia is only a matter of time. How do you feel about this statement, do you think that this is a real scenario?

— Unfortunately, bastards like Lukashenka, like Kadyrov, are doing everything to start a civil war. It was fierce in Chechnya and cold in Belarus. But, I think, the example of Ukraine will eventually become an example for many post-Soviet peoples, and Russia is part of this post-Soviet space. Many experts say that now we are witnessing the end of the collapse of the USSR, but on the territory of Russia. And it seems to me that many nations will sound loud, will have their say and become free. It's true, everyone is afraid of Russian nuclear weapons, but it seems to me...

— …Are you afraid of it?

— I'm still afraid that the Kremlin might use nuclear weapons. I say this because the West is afraid and guessing about what to do with these nuclear weapons if Russia collapses. However, it seems to me that people want to live and there is God, and there are forces of the Earth that will not allow an apocalyptic scenario either now or later.

— The idea is quite popular, the collapse of the Soviet Union, but they are also talking about the collapse of the Russian Federation as a result of the war. What are the possible scenarios for the collapse of Russia?

— It is the number of “zinc boys”, about which our Nobel laureate Sviatlana Aleksievich wrote. They, unfortunately, will come to their families like that, and it will make a strong effect. Because the losses are, in fact, huge. Indeed, we hear that the Russians do not even want to take the bodies of their dead, in the first place, in order not to cause this panic. These "zinc boys" can become a fuse for a grenade in multinational Russia. If 10 million Afghanistan resisted and was able to destroy the Soviet Union, then the huge Ukraine...

I do not agree when they say "little Ukraine against big Russia". In fact, Putin committed suicide when he decided to go against Ukrainians. Because the Ukrainians were the best soldiers, the best officers, not to mention the best sergeants, in the Soviet army.

The scenario is inevitable when the Putin regime collapses and, probably, the Russian Federation will exist, perhaps, like the countries of the British Commonwealth, if they are smart enough.

— Who is the perfect president of Belarus for you?

— I think that the presidency should remain in Belarus as an institution. At the first time, perhaps, the President needs more rights, to be a more representative figure. But I see that Ales Bialiatski could be the president, Mikola Statkevich could be the president, and Andrei Sannikov could also be the president. But these are the figures who today are ready to become presidents, in my opinion, and for whom we would not be ashamed.

— The Belarusian regime is already moving to such wild things that it encroaches on things that are sacred to many people. For example, the capture of the Red Church. How far can they still go?

— I am a Catholic and a parishioner of the Red Church. I know the senior priest of the church, Zavalniuk, well. And I will say that this is the center of the Belarusian national culture, and it has always been such a center, the center of cultural life, because there was also a public theatre, there was even an organization of anonymous alcoholics in the Lower Church, where people gathered and many stopped drinking, broke with their bad habits, with drug addiction, thanks to the people who worked in this church. It seems to be an act of Satanism manifestation, this church is like a bone in their throats.

There were several attempts to destroy the Red Church. A decision was made to destroy it in 1994, but the believers defended it in the 1990s, they were coming to pray for it every day. But, I think, "lukashenkas" are coming and leaving, but the Red Church remains.

— She'll survive this plague too.

— Yes, sure.

— How to de-occupy Belarus in today's realities?

— The West missed a lot regarding this situation, and not the Ukrainian leadership either. There were different sentiments. Because we said that if the West cannot solve the problem of the dictator Lukashenka, then it cannot solve a more serious problem either. And we saw that Putin learned the dictatorial tricks from Lukashenka, and the general construction of this entire “vertical”, and not vice versa.

We travelled a lot, for example, after 2014 we visited Ukraine and said that there was a huge danger, the “northern balcony” could fall on Kyiv if no action was taken. We asked to open FM stations on the border with Belarus, so that we could broadcast to a part of the Belarusian population, and simply describe Ukrainian life. Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovych had many years of stable trading. By the way, Lukashenka had the most problems with Yanukovych.

Now the situation is different, it seems that the Ukrainian leadership is learning, and not just learning, but winning. Both political and military leadership. It's true, everyone is surprised that Ukraine was able to resist, that Ukraine is winning, and that Ukraine is crushing these hordes of occupiers and aggressors. But Russia used its right flank in Belarus, for Ukraine it is the left flag actually. Ukraine for a long time believed that it was immune. The forces are gathering, and Ukraine is immune, because "the Minister of Defense of Belarus promised us," because "Lukashenka promised us that he would not attack".

Kyiv survived by a miracle, by blood, by terrible losses in general, and it was clear: the Russians would enter again. If Ukraine and the West do nothing with Belarus, then this will happen for the second and third time. They must understand this and pay great attention to it. There could be a way out: it is necessary to create a really powerful Belarusian unit, a real military brigade so that the Belarusian guys are concentrated in the north of Ukraine. Then part of the Ukrainian soldiers can be transferred to the south, and the Belarusians will close the border section and prepare to return to their homeland if something happens.

— We asked the Kalinovites a question. You are now at war with the Russian occupiers, and if Lukashenka forces the Belarusians to cross the border, what then, will you shoot at them? The Kalinovites said unequivocally: whether they are Belarusians or not, these are criminals, people who will come to a foreign land and we will have to eliminate the targets.

— But on the other hand, during the conversations, our guys hope that it will be easier for them to negotiate the surrender. These rounded up mobilized or just conscripts, especially if they participated in the protests, if they know that these are the Kalinovites in the north, this will be beneficial to Ukraine.

— It's more likely to reach them when they are told: Brothers, what for? Actually, you hate Lukashenka, and we hate him. Why did you come here? Surrender your weapons!

— Right. We all understand that creating a full-rate military brigade is an expensive pleasure, and therefore here, if I were heard, I would advise the Ukrainian leadership to apply to NATO, because the Ukrainian leadership has much better contacts. Ask NATO to help create a full-rate Belarusian unit. With some recruitment training centers at the same time, perhaps not only in Ukraine, but also in Lithuania, and in Poland, and in other countries.

— You've mentioned sanctions. What exact sanctions should the West take against the Belarusian regime?

— Sanctions against the banking system, apply in full.

— SWIFT?

— Yes. SWIFT should be completely blocked. Then to achieve the impossibility of circumventing the sanctions.

— They are looking for loopholes.

— Yes. Turkey has a twofold role in this situation. On the one hand, it seems to be helping Ukraine. On the other hand, the Putin regime bypasses many sanctions with the help of Turkey. As well as the Lukashenka regime, we know it. For example, potassium is already reaching Iran. Probably somehow through Turkey. Of course, there should not be such loopholes, even those of a symbolic nature, when Belarusian propagandists and officials suddenly travel around Italy and France. People take it as bullying. This is also very important and should not happen.

Probably, it is necessary to close the transport corridor. I see that this is a sore point for the West, but not as much as the rejection of Russian energy resources and Belarusian oil products made from Russian oil. But we nevertheless know that Poland trades fruits and vegetables today with Russia through Belarus. There is a circumvention of sanctions not only against Belarus, but also against Russia. Also, the sanctions against Russia are circumvented officially, and the ones against Belarus are like: well, we just delivered to Belarus. But there is no border near Smolensk, so everything goes there. I know that you have previously participated in protests demanding that there be no supplies to Belarus and Russia from Poland and Germany. But unfortunately, it's there, it's happening.

We know that a scheme has been devised whereby European trucks enter Belarus, are overloaded, and then Belarusian trucks go further. That is, it created difficulties, but more for the Russians. The Belarusian regime makes money on this.

Now the situation is such that if we say that the world is on the verge of a nuclear threat, then it is necessary to exert pressure from all sides in order to prevent this. Because all these weaknesses and tricks on the part of the West are perceived by the dictators as a signal for further aggressive actions.

— Dzima, your surname sounds "Bondarenko" in Ukrainian. "Can you listen, read and understand as our native speaker?" [The question was asked in Ukrainian - Ed.]

— My father is Ukrainian and my mother is Belarusian. My father was born, however, in Belarus. My grandfather was Ukrainian and spoke Ukrainian, but he came to Belarus from Russia. There was such a large village in Russia located near the Volga River, Velikaya Yekaterinovka, and he moved there at one time. But my grandfather was one of the founders of the partisan movement in Belarus, and I was very impressed by the poem of our Yanka Kupala "Bandarouna" in its time, there is a tragic story about the Ukrainian Cossack uprising. Colonel Bondarenko and his daughter are the characters. That means so much to me.

When I was on the Maidan, on the first Orange Maidan, and heard the Ukrainian anthem, I felt tears in my eyes and goosebumps. Ukrainian genes mean a lot. I'm proud to be half Ukrainian.

— For more than one year you have been repeating like a mantra: Lukashenka is weak, the end is near, now in an interview you said that a year is left. How did you define it?

— 'Carthage Must Be Destroyed' and it was eventually destroyed. Although we do not know what would be better, there is such an example. I know that people in Belarus were unhappy and they saw that their neighbours, Lithuanians, Poles, Latvians, Estonians, live better, not to mention the inhabitants of the Far West. I saw that a layer of Belarusian fattening collective farmers terribly irritated people and that the revolution was inevitable in Belarus, I spoke about it.

But we know that, for example, in 2019, in 2020, such people as Mikola Statkevich, Yauhen Afnahel, Maksim Viniarski, Natallia Radzina spoke about the revolution. Most were silent. And then it turned out that the revolution had taken place, and at the top there were completely different people who failed this revolution, because those who started it were jailed. And those who fail travel the world. This is ridiculous.

The analysis confirms, both economic and geopolitical, what we have been talking about. Even the countries of Eastern Europe as a whole have a larger population than Russia. The countries of the Intermarium, between the Adriatic, Black and Baltic seas: The GDP of these countries is also higher than the Russian one. The Ukrainian army has shown that today it is the strongest army in Europe in terms of morale, training, and ability to fight. That is why the defeat of Russia is inevitable, but if there is no nuclear conflict. Well, the Belarusians deserved, just like the Ukrainians, the right to freedom, the right to independence. As a believer, I know that the Lord punishes bad deeds and rewards good deeds. Both Ukrainians and Belarusians deserve a good life, but it won't be easy.

— If we talk about this war, then, by and large, what has it changed and will change in this world?

— Well, that's crazy. I was a child who grew up on the history of the Great Patriotic War. All my relatives went through the war, my mother lived in the occupation, and my father too, they were among partisans. Both of my grandfathers did not return from the war. And it was impossible to imagine that there would be a war between Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians. And after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a dictatorship regime was established, unjust and impossible...

But there will be a good result. I really hope so and believe in it. And I think that I will still have an opportunity to live well in a free European Belarus.

— And here comes the last question. I ask this question during every show actually. How to win? What do Belarusians need to realize and experience, what steps to take to win?

— Military victory is very often determined by allies. We have such allies, we have allies. I'm talking about Ukraine, the European Union. I'm talking about the NATO countries, about all the countries of the democratic world. First of all, we must convince our allies, our partners to help us. We, as Ukrainians, will fight on our own, give us weapons, help us. And we, as an independent country, say: Ukrainians, help us win. We will fight on our own, we have enough leaders and enough brave people. The 2020 revolution has shown this. Today, especially after 2020, I am not ashamed of the Belarusians, I think we have said our word and will say it again.

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