Alexander Khara: Kyiv Has An Important Ally

Ukraine's goal is to show that Belarus has new leaders.

How can the West respond to Putin's provocations? Will there be a new attempt to attack Ukraine from Belarus? Which representative of the Belarusian opposition can Kyiv invite for negotiations?

Alexander Khara, Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, answered these and other questions in an interview with Charter97.org.

— Analysts indicated two possible provocations from the Russian Federation, which can be used by Putin. Namely: undermining of the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant and nuclear weapons. Which of these scenarios the Russian authorities can apply?

— Taking into account Russia's violence in Ukraine, we can say that they are capable of all sorts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Therefore, no options can be ruled out.

The point of Shoigu's call and conversation with the British, American and French ministers was an attempt to scare them into stopping aid to Ukraine, primarily military aid. They repeated the thesis several times, that the conflict could turn into an uncontrolled escalation, and this phrase means the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia both against Ukraine and against NATO members. The reason for this is the inability of the Russian armed forces to fulfil their tasks in the military field and they are on the verge of receiving new defeats in the southern axis. The evacuation of the Russian army from Kherson and the forcible deportation of Ukrainian citizens from there show the sorry state of the Russian troops' affairs.

Of course, it is possible to undermine the dam. Just yesterday, a comment by the head of our military intelligence appeared. He says that the Russians have mined part of the dam of the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant, but he sees no reason to undermine it. Much more explosives are needed for the complete flooding of the left bank near Kherson, it should be placed correctly since this is a rather large protective structure. What they have done can bring some kind of ecological catastrophe and somehow delay the advance of Ukrainian troops for some time. And most importantly, the undermining of the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant will mean the termination of water supplies to Crimea, which is not beneficial for the occupiers. Secondly, it will threaten the Zaporizhzhya NPP, because the dam plays an important role in the system for ensuring the operation of the NPP. But since 'there is no telling what a fool will do', and after the Russians seized the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, entrenched in the Red Forest, having received radiation dozes, they behave quite dangerously at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, it is not particularly necessary to expect any reasonable and logical actions from these people.

The Russians may try to arrange a nuclear provocation. It will not bring any military successes — it will be a tremendous disaster of technogenic and anthropogenic nature. Naturally, their propaganda will show that it was the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv that did this to blame poor and unfortunate Russia, which protects Russian speakers in Ukraine. But yesterday I saw a joint statement by the British, Americans and French, they rejected any possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Ukraine in any format and placed any responsibility entirely on the Russian Federation. If you look at Surovikin, with brains baked by the Syrian sun, if he has any, it melted for sure, then he can take such a step. He is a butcher, a katsap. Katsap is translated from several languages - Turkic, Arabic and Hebrew - a butcher, a murderer, and a skinner. He can carry out such an order, he can offer such a stupid idea to blame Ukraine. Will the Fuhrer of the Russian world have the sense not to do this? This question remains.

— How can the West respond to these threats?

— The first point is what is called deterrence. It began when the Russians, first propagandists, then underlings in the government, began to threaten the use of all means. This wording always refers to nuclear weapons.

First of all, US President Joseph Biden gave a clear answer to warn Putin. Both the National Security Adviser and the Secretary of State went on to say that the consequences for the Russian Federation would be catastrophic, while former US military and former diplomats spoke in the media about possible responses.

One of them was the complete destruction of the Russian troops in Ukraine, not only in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson but also on the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. This could have catastrophic consequences for the Russian army, because almost all combat-ready Russian military equipment is now on our territory.

The second point is to keep the enemy in the dark about the specific actions of the authorities, the so-called strategic uncertainty. I think that the attention of the Russian military was brought to the attention of what the West’s response might be and how the policy of Western partners regarding support for Ukraine would change.

If now there are certain self-limitations on the supply of certain types of weapons, for example, modern tanks and missile systems with a range of more than 80 kilometres, then there are the same operational-tactical missiles for the HIMARS, which can strike at the rear to a depth of 300 kilometres. These things will simply be routinely unlocked, not to mention other more important types of weapons that Ukraine could use to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation.

The self-restriction of the West in this sense can be lifted, and it does not benefit Russia to have its manpower and equipment defeated, which has not even begun military operations in Ukraine. Belgorod, Crimea, Krasnodar Krai and even Rostov, which was originally the de facto base for conducting aggression against Ukraine, these cities, these regions will feel all the sadness of the war that Ukraine has been experiencing since 2014.

— Another threat to Ukraine is a repeated offensive from the territory of Belarus. What are the tools for pre-emptive action so as not to wait for a repetition of the February events?

— Also, Lukashenka is a blatant bastard and a murderer of his citizens, he is also an accomplice in war crimes in Ukraine. But for all that, he is hardly an idiot, he should think ten times before joining Putin's defeatist campaign. He was more likely to be part of this military campaign in February and March, when things looked hard enough for Ukraine. Now it would just be suicidal. Actually, that is why we hear this militant rhetoric of Lukashenka, but apart from granting the territory to Belarus, no other actions are particularly visible.

Now his regime is based just on Russian money and bayonets. The Belarusian army and the KGB are the tools he hopes to rely on in case of any friction with his senior partner in the Kremlin. If he makes a decision and sends Belarusians to kill Ukrainians in this war on the side of the aggressor, the majority of Belarusians, no matter how pro-Russian they are, understand the unfair nature of this war and their motivation will not be very good, because they will not defend their state and even this bastardous regime.

The second point is that our intelligence said that Belarus transferred a large amount of equipment and heavy weapons to the Russians. Therefore, they do not have enough strength and means to do something serious. Yes, they can cross the border, somewhere to gain a foothold in Ukraine, but our country was preparing for this scenario, we understand the danger of a strike in the western axis to stop the supply of weapons from Poland. We have motivated guys there who are ready to destroy any occupier, regardless of whether they are representatives of the fraternal people of Belarus or fascist Russia.

Most importantly, I believe that both ordinary Belarusians and the Belarusian military saw overcrowded hospitals in the Belarusian cities when they brought wounded occupiers there in February, March and April of this year. I don't think they believe to be 'Rambos', that they will behave differently or be more protected than the very best Russian troops that were thrown into the capture of Kyiv. These horrors of war, which the Belarusians saw through the suffering of the Russian military, will deter them. Attempts to engage the army may lead to what we saw in Russia after the announcement of the so-called partial mobilization.

Therefore, I doubt that the Belarusian dictator will go to such stupidity, pushing his regime to collapse. Belarusian mothers and wives will not silently watch how their children and husbands will be brought in body bags. After the falsified unfair Belarusian elections, people came to protest not only in Minsk, unlike in Russia, where intellectual youth protested only in large cities. Therefore, I have doubts that Lukashenka is such an idiot as not to understand the danger to his regime.

I'm not saying that he cares about the Belarusians or something else, he thinks only about his own power, but these factors should be the most important in his mind. This is what keeps Lukashenka from entering the war already lost by Russia at a stage when it is already clear to everyone that there will be no victorious march along Khreschatyk.

Only in such a way as it was on the Independence Day of Ukraine when there were broken Russian vehicles exposed, there are no other options. I do not think that Lukashenka wants to see Belarusian prisoners or Belarusian broken military equipment there.

— Ukrainian deputy from the Servant of the People party Bohdan Yaremenko wrote a big article about rethinking the Belarusian strategy. Why did it happen that such a strategy did not exist in Ukraine for a long time?

— First, I absolutely agree that Ukraine should announce a decision publicly. The times when we kept silent about something, hoping for Lukashenka's reasonableness, have passed. If you look at the map, Ukraine has only one-third of its borders that are secure. Belarus is an ally of the Russian Federation. Naturally, we do not want such a long border, located next to Kyiv and our western regions bordering Poland, to pose a threat. If you look further down the map, there is the Russian border, the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, now also Kherson, Crimea and Transnistria.

First of all, Kyiv hoped for a long time that an additional front would not appear from the Belarusian side. Secondly, if we are talking about the period before February 24, Belarus played the role of a platform through which we received energy resources, the same diesel fuel that we need for our armed forces. An important point was also the smuggling of spares for military equipment, weapons from the Russian Federation, since we had no transport communication or other direct deliveries. That is, until February 24, it was precisely such an assessment of the previous leadership of Ukraine, such pragmatic interests, the possibility of an additional threat and the possibility of losing access to cheap energy resources that held Kyiv back.

One more time, I will describe the way of thinking of the authorities at that time. The Maidan of Foreign Affairs and a large number of other organizations involved in foreign policy and security have criticized our government, both Poroshenko and the current government, for not breaking off diplomatic relations. We still have diplomatic relations with Belarus. It is absolutely wrong because according to international law, this country is the same aggressor as the Russian Federation. Therefore, there is simply no point in diplomatic relations.

It would make sense to maintain consular relations, given that there are citizens of Ukraine in Belarus. And most importantly, Belarus is a transit route for our fellow citizens who were illegally taken to the territory of the Russian Federation, they have the opportunity to get back to Ukraine. Therefore, it is extremely important for us to keep the consular staff there.

Mr Yaremenko has indicated extremely important aspects in his article. There should be a broad opposition platform, and not just one recognized (at least by the Western community) leader. Since we understand that Mrs Tikhanovskaya does not have sufficient levers of influence on the situation in Belarus and it is clear that she and her headquarters (no matter how democratic and good intentions they are) are not able to resist such a strong adversary who controls the government, the security forces and those who enjoys Putin's support.

Therefore, we must look wider — there are opposition leaders who showed themselves much earlier than in the last elections in Belarus. We must also take into account new factors, first of all those Belarusians, to whom we are extremely grateful, who are now fighting on the side of Ukraine not only for our independence and sovereignty, but also for the future independent European Belarus.

These people should be part of the new platform. It seems to me that the understanding that we have such important allies, who have shown their willingness to sacrifice their lives protecting our interests, should lead to support. Ukraine needs to start supporting these forces more explicitly and more strongly in order to set in motion changes in Belarus.

Both Bohdan Yaremenko and I, and many other people, believe that peace, security and prosperity in Europe are impossible without Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia becoming part of the political and military space of the Western world. Belarus will strive to join the European Union and NATO after some time, and of course, we will support their aspiration. Only when Russia has no opportunity to influence its Western neighbours, then Russian imperialism will have no opportunity to influence and destroy security, freedom and prosperity. Therefore, our ideas and goals absolutely coincide with those people who are fighting for the independence of Belarus from the usurper, from the Russian occupation, which actually exists now.

The official authorities of Ukraine must state this clearly, and this must become part of their political practice.

— How to make the Kalinouski Regiment even more powerful?

— As for weapons and other things, this component is in order more or less. Naturally, something is always missing, that is, even food, and even emotional, and moral support for these people. They must be heroes in their homeland, so there must be an informational component. But if we are talking about the future, then only the people who are now in the trenches must decide who can represent them politically.

And in this sense, Ukrainian civil society, since we already have our own experience and achievements in this sense, should help these new leaders, who can be not only military personnel, warriors, and defenders, but also politicians. To start working with them, to help them, to amplify their voice. We must show the world that Belarus has new leaders who are ready to take responsibility for the future of their country.

It can also be public and political initiatives, it can be the provision of this platform. It is clear that Ukraine is not going to interfere in the internal affairs of democratic Belarus, which, I hope, will become like that in the near future.

We are to help them in terms of logistics and some constitutional things, financial assistance, as much as possible in our difficult time. We are to help these people come to an agreement through this common platform and common actions. We must continue to provide information support and everything necessary for them to become a single entity, so that the Ukrainian government and our Western allies communicate with it as with a legitimate government, a kind of transitional government that in the future can claim democratic legitimacy.

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