Russian Troops Widen Road On The Arabatskaya Spit To Escape From Armyansk

Panic grips occupants in Crimea.

The Ukrainian military continues a counteroffensive at the Svatove-Kreminna line and is holding a heroic defense near Bakhmut. At the same time, the Russians in Crimea are probably beginning to panic and have already raised the terrorist threat level to yellow (i.e. high).

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Counteroffensive in Luhansk Oblast

Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations at the Svatove-Kreminna line, while Russian operations are slowed by inclement weather. The Russian Defense Ministry (RDM) stated that Russian artillery units repulsed Ukrainian forces attempting to advance in the direction of Novoselovske (23 km northwest of Svatove).

The Luhansk Regional Administration of Ukraine stated that Russian forces defended and continued to fire artillery in the areas of Novoselovske, Stelmakhivka, Ploshchadka, and Makiivka, all west of the H26 and R66 highway.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Stelmakhivka, while the Russian Defense Ministry claims that they foiled an attempt by the AFU to seize the village.

The deputy interior minister of the so-called LPR, Vitaly Kiselev, released video footage that allegedly shows the consequences of an attempted offensive by Ukrainian forces near Orlyanka. The Russian source claimed that Russian forces repulsed an assault on Kuzemivka, as well as attacks in the direction of Holikove and Krasnopopivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continue regular indirect fire on the line of contact in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk regions.

Ukrainian troops continue to repel Russian assaults west of Lysychansk. The head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration, Serhiy Haidai, reported that Ukrainian troops are repulsing Russian attacks on Belohorivka on a daily basis. A Russian source claimed that Russian troops were very active in the Verkhnekamenka area and stated that Ukrainian forces were shelling Russian equipment in the area.

Fighting in Donbas

Russian forces continue to conduct offensives in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assault on Bakhmut, near Sporny, Belohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar and Opitnoye. The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks at the border near Kamenka and Vesele, Pervomayske, Krasnohorivka, Marinka and Novomikhailivka.

"People's militia" of the so-called "DPR" published a video allegedly showing the 100th Brigade of the "DPR" storming Ukrainian positions near Nevelske. Several Russian sources claimed that Russian troops had advanced to Marinka, while the AFU had suffered heavy losses and were slowly retreating from positions in the city. Russian military bloggers also claim Russian troops have also cut two of the three supply roads to Marinka. The Russians attribute their slow advance near Marinka to the fact that the surrounding landscape of open fields with little cover.

A Russian military blogger claims that Russian forces repulsed Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian positions in Pavlivka on November 20 and 21. An open-source intelligence group based in Georgia suggested that Russian forces might be waiting for better weather to resume offensive operations in the directions of Hulyaipole, Uhledar and Marinka.

Situation in the south

Russian troops continue to build fortifications in the Kherson region south of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops also continued shelling Ukrainian positions on the right bank of the Dnipro River. A Russian source claimed that Russian artillery repulsed a Ukrainian reconnaissance group attempting to cross the Dnipro River by boat, but did not provide any evidence for this claim.

The Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security also reported that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct unspecified actions on the Kinburn Spit, but specified that Russian forces still hold positions there.

The Russian Defense Ministry continues to blame Ukraine for provoking a man-made disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukrainian forces of shelling the Zaporizhzhia NPP on Nov. 21, saying Ukraine threatened to cause the disaster.

The Russian Defense Ministry and another Russian source claimed that Russian troops destroyed Ukrainian artillery systems in Marganets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which were responsible for shelling the ZNPP. Meanwhile, representatives of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast report that Russian troops shelled Marganets and nearby settlements from the direction of Energodar on November 22.

"ISW previously assessed that these accusations were likely a continued Russian media and fake operations to consolidate control over the plant and an attempt to present Russian control over the ZNPP as an important condition to avoid a man-made nuclear or radiological disaster," analysts say.

Some Russian sources suggest that the Russian occupation authorities will hand over the ZNPP to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Ukrainian authorities because of the alleged increased instability at the ZNPP. However, the Kremlin is likely to defend control of the ZNPP as an instrument of international influence.

Crimean occupation authorities are showing increased concern, likely due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOC) on the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit. Russian sources spread footage of Russian air defense activation on Nov. 22, claiming that Russian forces shot down several Ukrainian drones over Crimea.

Subsequently, the "head" of Crimea's occupation, Sergey Aksyonov, announced that Crimea was raising the terrorist threat level to high (yellow) until at least December 7. Russian military bloggers claimed that their authorities were preparing to evacuate administration officials and military equipment in Armyansk because of the threat of Ukrainian strikes on North Crimea.

Aksenov denied claims of evacuation, and some military bloggers claimed that the occupation authorities in Armyansk were conducting evacuation training.

The Ukrainian center also reported that Russian troops were planning to widen the road on the Arabatskaya Spit to move military equipment to relocate the GLOC from Armyansk. "The enemy is close to panic," analysts stated.