American Analysts Name Purpose Of Putin's Visit To Belarus

The meeting will have serious consequences.

Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to put pressure on Lukashenka in order to achieve concessions on the integration of the two countries during his visit to Minsk, as well as create conditions for a new attack on Ukraine.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian President Vladimir Putin will pressure President Lukashenka to make concessions on the integration of the two countries during his visit to Minsk.

The Kremlin seeks to use the “union state” to establish Russian control over Belarus.

The visit to Minsk may indicate that Putin is trying to create the conditions for a renewed offensive in Ukraine.

The ISW currently assesses a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low, but possible. It is unlikely that Belarusian forces will invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force. It is far from obvious that Lukashenka will send Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine even alongside Russian troops.

However, the meeting between Putin and Lukashenka, at the very least, will facilitate a separate Russian information operation aimed at breaking the will of Ukraine and the willingness of the West to support Ukraine. This meeting will bolster a Russian information operation aimed at convincing Ukrainians and Westerners that Russia can attack Ukraine from Belarus. The ongoing Russian strikes on Kyiv, the constant deployment of troops to Belarus, and the ongoing bellicose rhetoric are all part of this information operation.

The Kremlin is unlikely to break the will of the Ukrainians to fight. Moscow is probably trying to persuade the West to admit that Ukraine cannot fundamentally change the current front line, and that the war has effectively reached a stalemate.

The ISW believes that this conclusion is inaccurate, and that Ukraine has a good chance of recovering a significant critical area in the coming months.