‘Rusty Machine Started Moving’: When Will Invasion From Belarus Start?

The military expert called the time needed by the Russian Federation to prepare a new offensive against Kyiv.

In an interview with Glavred, serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, blogger Yuri Kasyanov told that even if the Russians had prepared these 200-300 thousand soldiers and all the equipment, they would still have to conduct a logistic operation in order to move the entire necessary property, people to the northern direction in the territory of Belarus, and already then to plan a new offensive.

“That is, they still need to drive a bunch of ammunition to the offensive planning point, deploy field hospitals, and so on. When can they do this? The nearest deadline is within three weeks (and this is still a very optimistic forecast for them). We know that this never happens fast, because both the human factor and the weather and the confusion surrounding displacement have an impact. We see that Russia's rusty, gnarly war machine has begun to move. Movements towards our border under the guise of yet another exercises — transfers of tanks and people, arrivals of planes have already started,” Kasyanov noted.

At the same time, he believes that the Russians can cope in three weeks.

“Anyway, we should not underestimate them, because that's the most dangerous thing. For obvious reasons, we have limited information, because the enemy tries not to tell about his plans, carries out the troop movements covertly. Therefore it is better to prepare in advance for any serious offensive actions from the opponent, than not to prepare at all,”

Kasyanov summarized.