Natallia Radzina: Belarusians Will Revolt If Lukashenka Sends Army To Ukraine

The hatred of the regime is rising.

On December 19, 2010, the so-called presidential elections were held in Belarus. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest against the falsification of the results after the polling stations closed.

The Belsat TV channel recalls the events with Natallia Radzina, the editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website.

– Natallia, when we remember 2020, we say that experts predicted that it would turn out to be ordinary. When we remember 2010, what did they say then?

— I don’t know which experts you are talking about, because I always said that there will be a revolution in 2020. I have always believed in the Belarusian people and I knew that people would no longer tolerate this dictatorship and would take to the streets.

As for 2010, I've just been watching the broadcast from the square that brought tears to my eyes. This is a historic day that changed my life as well. Then 50,000 people, despite the threats, took to the streets to protest against the falsification of the results of the "presidential elections". The Belarusians showed their strength to the whole world, they showed that they did not want to tolerate the dictatorship, and this was actually a historical event.

– Then there were dozens of protestors, compared to 2020, when there were hundreds of thousands. Why were tens of thousands ready to oppose at that moment?

– Probably society has not yet matured in 2010. Although, Belarusians hated Lukashenka as well as in 2020. But, perhaps, the understanding has not yet come to everyone that it is necessary to protest and take to the streets, because otherwise, we will not be able to change the situation.

It is worth noting that in 2010 people managed to take to the streets for only one day. They dispersed the Square already on the evening of December 19. Almost all independent presidential candidates were arrested, including Andrei Sannikov, who was the strongest candidate and entered the second round along with Lukashenka. They were arresting people all over the country all night long, from December 19 to 20. I and the journalists of the Charter-97 website were also arrested, and the entire editorial office was smashed.

There were no protests the very next day, and that was the problem. Of course, we were dreaming in prison that people would continue to fight, but there were no politicians who would call for people to take to the streets, and the Belarusians themselves were a little confused.

We saw that it was possible to go out for almost two months in 2020, in August and September, but the opposition had no strategy. The problem is that the real leaders were imprisoned in the summer, and the leaders who emerged on the wave of protests turned out to be too weak.

— Actually, we also asked Andrei Sannikov, the presidential candidate in 2010, to remember the Square. After those "presidential elections" he was sentenced to five years in prison. The regime released him early in 2012 under the pressure from the international community. Andrei Sannikov considers the 2020 revolution a logical continuation of the previous protests, including the 2010 Square. Let's listen to him and get back to the conversation.

Andrei Sannikov: "All the protests made the revolution, all the activities of the opposition and civil society. I always say that in 2010 we had an uprising, and in 2020 we had a real revolution.

I am sure that this will lead to victory because people and resolve, lacking in 2010, were in 2020. There were people and resolve in 2020, but there were no leaders. Our leaders are still in jail.”

– We continue the conversation with Natallia Radzina. There were no leaders and they are still in prisons. Will leaders appear?

– I'm sure they will. They still exist. I'm talking about the Belarusians who are fighting in Ukraine. I believe that Belarusian volunteers are real leaders. They sacrifice their lives for the independence of Ukraine and the freedom of Belarus.

The soldiers of the Kalinouski Regiment and Belarusians who serve in different units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine declare their readiness to liberate Belarus. They are the leaders.

— Will they be able to unite the Belarusians, in your opinion? Don't you think that volunteers are living in their own world, while the majority of Belarusians are living in their own in Belarus?

– I'm checking the online polls from time to time, and I see that the Kalinouski Regiment is the most popular political force today. Although, in essence, they are not yet a political force. Only now they are creating something. It is primarily a military unit. What they say about the liberation of Belarus from the dictatorship and Russian occupiers gives people hope and we see that people have high expectations of them.

— So let's go back to 2010. Traditionally, those who tried to defeat Lukashenka were sent to prison, but international pressure helped these people get out.

— Neither the West nor the Belarusian society drew conclusions after 2010. Therefore, events developed in this way in 2020. The first conclusion is that it was necessary to go on when the leaders got into prisons. We had to keep fighting. But a part of the society then had an illusion that it was still possible to wait and live under Lukashenka.

Supposedly opposition organizations and bodies appeared. They were saying that there would be “soft liberalization”, some kind of “reforms”, and “we will slowly do something with this cannibalistic regime”. But they did nothing and got 2020 events. When we say that people were tortured in 2010 (I personally went through torture in a KGB prison, like all political prisoners), then in 2020 the scale of repression was 20 times greater, so that it was impossible to endure. It was necessary to protest when there was an opportunity. There were still quite a lot of opportunities before 2020.

This is the first point - to draw conclusions and keep going. What part of the opposition from various coordinating councils and "cabinets" is now waiting for? The next elections? But what elections can we talk about? Today people are dying in prisons!

Secondly, what conclusions did the West draw? I hope they understand now. Charter97.org had a very good interview yesterday with former British Ambassador to Belarus Rosemary Thomas, and she admitted that the Europeans were wrong in 2015 when they lifted sanctions against Lukashenka, thinking that they could agree with him that there would be some reforms. The West lifted the sanctions and got Belarus in 2020 and the war in 2022.

— Are there no such thoughts now?

— I hope not, but, of course, it's troubling that Belarus is not included in the ninth package of the EU sanctions. Do they hope that this will somehow force Lukashenka not to join the war in Ukraine? So Lukashenka does not decide anything in Belarus now. They will invade if Putin wants. All the top leadership of Ukraine says that in January-February there may be an attack on Ukraine from Belarus. Therefore, it is necessary to impose even tougher sanctions, there is no other way out.

— You mentioned the situation of “tolerating Lukashenka”, which was in 2010, is it generally acceptable now?

– It's totally unacceptable. We see that this is impossible. The situation in Belarus is only getting worse. The repressions have not stopped for more than two years. Moreover, the repressions intensified with the outbreak of the war. They arrest people every day and therefore the situation will not improve. It is clear that Lukashenka does not trust the Belarusians. He knows that people hate him, it won't get better and we need to think about how we can save people and the country. We have nothing else, just struggle. Only fighting.

– What should the opposition, which is now abroad, do?

— What can we do? In my opinion, this is information work. It is very important that independent media work for the country. So that there are as many information projects aimed at Belarus as possible, so that people know the truth about what is happening both in their country and in Ukraine.

It is necessary to help the families of political prisoners. Now, this help is catastrophically lacking. People are left in Belarus without help. We need to help the refugees too. A lot of people left the country and it is very difficult for them to survive in foreign countries.

We also need to help Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine. After all, more and more Belarusians will go to Ukraine, because they understand that the military way is perhaps the only way to liberate the country during the war.

– The opposition leaders are imprisoned now. Is it possible to predict a new uprising, revolution and unification of people?

– It's possible. We see that the situation in Belarus is very difficult. The protest has not disappeared. It is just growing and people are waiting for the right time to take to the streets. But it is better not to take to the streets now when the situation is not yet ripe. I think that there will be very serious triggers, for example, the invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusiaеn army. After all, even if only the Russian army invades from Belarus, then the Ukrainian army will strike at military facilities in Belarus. This, I think, will also become a trigger for Belarus to revolt again.

– The wheel of history can not be turned back. However, if you could address the politicians of 2010 today, what would you say to them?

– I would say that they are heroes, they are great. Those who were on the Square took risks and went to prison. Those who did their best to change the situation in their country and those who warned the Belarusians to fight against the dictatorship, otherwise things would get worse. A low bow to these people and great respect.